The ongoing debate surrounding President Joe Biden’s fitness for re-election isn’t likely to be resolved any time soon. He has repeatedly refused to step down, yet the forces trying to get him to drop out aren’t going away.
Kamala Harris has emerged as the most likely candidate to take his place on the Democratic ballot, and it could still happen. This means that Donald Trump ought to pick a running mate that will boost his ticket against two potential Democratic tickets.
As much as she may be the most unpopular vice president in history, if Biden were to bow out, Harris, as the sitting vice president, is the natural successor. Despite her lackluster approval ratings and shaky performance, she is the only candidate who can inherit Biden’s campaign war chest, and, let’s face it, the party would be in big trouble if they passed over the “first woman of color vice president,” for a white guy.
She may be a terrible vice president and an even worse candidate, but the Democrats and the media would quickly rally behind her as a symbol of progress and diversity. It would be Barack Obama in 2008 all over again. This move could energize key Democratic voter bases, including women and minority groups — two groups with whom Trump has made significant gains since 2020.
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Trump must weigh these dynamics carefully and realize that certain running mates on his alleged shortlist won’t help him. Gov. Doug Burgum (R-N.D.) for example, is frequently cited as a likely running mate. I’m sorry, but a ticket with two rich businessmen would be handing Democrats all the ammunition they need.
Some would argue that a running mate has little impact on a campaign, but I would say that’s not necessarily true. Many believe that John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin in 2008 ultimately hurt his campaign. On the other side, the incredibly inexperienced Barack Obama chose Biden because he needed someone with experience to compensate for that.
If Trump wants to ensure that women or minority voters who have either moved to him or at least away from Biden stay that way if Harris moves to the top of the ticket, he needs to consider picking a female or minority running mate.
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Unlike Democrats, who consider race and gender before qualifications, Trump's selection of a woman or minority running mate wouldn't be an affirmative action pick. He has plenty of highly qualified options who can not only boost Trump's ticket but also help the GOP long term.
Trump's gains with black and female voters are something that the Republican Party can build upon to help crush the Democrats. The right choice for a running mate can continue chipping away at the Democratic coalition and winning back voters whom Democrats have been relying on to keep them in power for decades.
In this political chess game, every move matters, and Trump’s decision on his running mate could be the game-changer. Facing a potential Harris-led Democratic ticket, the right choice for Trump is the one who can appeal to those voters who are flirting with voting for him and win them over.
