Joe Biden's campaign is in trouble. All the fundamentals in this year's presidential campaign look good for Trump, and so far, everything Biden has tried to reset his campaign hasn't worked. His State of the Union address only gave him a short-lived bump, and his pivot on immigration hasn't convinced anyone he's really serious about the border crisis. But Biden has yet another Hail Mary strategy, and it could be his last chance, as many in the party are ready to pull the plug on him and give someone else a shot at the White House.
On Thursday, Emerson College/The Hill released their latest poll, which focused on the key battleground states that will determine the election results.
The results are quite interesting.
JUNE STATE POLLS with @thehill
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) June 20, 2024
AZ: 47% Trump, 43% Biden
GA: 45% Trump, 41% Biden
MI: 46% Trump, 45% Biden
MN: 45% Trump, 45% Biden
NV: 46% Trump, 43% Biden
PA: 47% Trump, 45% Biden
WI: 47% Trump, 44% Bidenhttps://t.co/JvHu3EZT4M pic.twitter.com/P6MuS7JNvT
One notable thing about this poll is that it does not include North Carolina—which has long been considered a battleground state—but does include Minnesota, which hasn't been considered a swing state until recently. This is another bad sign for Joe Biden. Trump leads in all of the battlegrounds, and Trump and Biden are tied in Minnesota.
"In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explains.
Related: The Biden Campaign Is in More Trouble Than You Think
"Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April," Kimball continued. "In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%."
The drop may be connected to Trump's conviction in the New York City trial, though most voters indicated the verdict would have no impact on their vote. Still, For Trump to still lead in the polls despite the verdict is a major problem for Joe Biden, as it shows that voters have largely made up their minds and they want Trump back in office.
And Joe Biden is likely placing all his chips on next week's presidential debate. How do we know this? He's taking yet another break from pretending to be the president to prepare for the debate. Biden is traveling on Thursday to Camp David, where he and his team will remain until Thursday's debate on CNN.
The presidential No Fly Zone alert is up for pilots. Joe Biden will be in Camp David for the full seven days, until next Thursday, June 27, debate day. He really takes debate prep seriously! pic.twitter.com/gQANegESAg
— Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) June 20, 2024
The Biden campaign clearly knows how critical this debate is because, according to reports, if Biden doesn't have a strong performance in the debate, party leaders may force him to drop out.
Will seven days of prep be enough?
