There are less than six months to go before the presidential election, and things continue to look bleak for Joe Biden. After seeing the latest New York Times poll on swing states, even CNN's Harry Enten had to admit that the numbers "are an absolute disaster" for Joe Biden
A disaster may be an understatement.
"Look, these Sun Belt battleground states," he said. "Frankly, for the Joe Biden campaign, these numbers are an absolute disaster. The smallest lead is in Arizona for Donald Trump; he's up six. Look at this, nine in Georgia, 13 in Nevada. My goodness, gracious! My God! That is a huge lead. No Democrat has lost that state since John Kerry lost it back in 2004."
As for the Great Lakes battleground states, things were still bleak, but Enten argued that the numbers are something the "Joe Biden campaign can work with."
"Look, Pennsylvania, Donald Trump up three, but that's well within the margin of error. Wisconsin, Donald Trump up one — well within the margin of error, and actually a Joe Biden lead well within the margin of error of a point [in Michigan]. This they can work with, the Joe Biden campaign. This, the Donald Trump campaign absolutely loves, and it looks like a lot of the other polling out of the Sun Belt battlegrounds as well.
CNN's Kate Bolduan then wanted to know why Trump is doing better in the Sun Belt than in the Great Lakes.
According to Enten, it's demographics.
"The Trump coalition is changing," he said. "That's basically what's cooking here. This is at least one of the big reasons why."
Enten then pointed out that Trump's coalition has become more diverse, and the Sun Belt states are more diverse than the Great Lake battleground states.
"AN ABSOLUTE DISASTER": President Trump post MASSIVE leads in battleground states over Crooked Joe Biden in New York Times poll.
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) May 13, 2024
NEVADA: Trump +13
GEORGIA: Trump +9
ARIZONA: Trump +6
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump +3
WISCONSIN: Trump +1 pic.twitter.com/f92WSa7i4l
Without a doubt, these poll numbers are great for the Trump campaign. But they're also a warning. Why? Because his strength in the Sun Belt isn't enough to win the presidency. While it's true that Trump leads in two of the three Great Lakes battlegrounds, those leads are within the margin of error. The good news for him is that he won all three of the states in 2016 and can certainly win them again, but when you do the Electoral College math, Trump needs to win at least one of those states to secure victory in the presidential election. If Biden wins them all, he wins.
Biden's best hope for winning the presidency at this point is to sweep the Great Lakes battleground states (WI, MI, and PA), which would give him a 270-268 Electoral College victory. pic.twitter.com/lReft8mkyi
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) May 13, 2024
Of course, this is one poll, and I would never recommend assessing the state of the race on one poll. But when you look at the RealClearPolitics averages for the states, these numbers are fairly consistent with other polls we're seeing. Also, polling trends have shown that several blue states, some of which aren't mentioned above, are actually in play this year.
Recommended: Here Are the Blue States That Trump Can Win in November
So while the advantage right now belongs to Trump, his chances of winning this election depend on leads that are within the margin of error, at least based on this poll.
