Most indications say that if the presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would win. Experts on both sides of the aisle have said this, and both national and battleground state polling bears this out. Of course, that’s today. There are still seven months to go before the election — that’s a lifetime in politics. A year ago, Joe Biden was leading in many polls. Things have changed. They may still change.
That said, there has been so little good news for Democrats to point to lately that anytime there’s been even the slightest thing to latch onto, the media will do so.
And so it was with the latest Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of battleground states.
Bloomberg exclaimed, "Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows,” in its headline about the poll.
"Finally, some good news for President Joe Biden on the polling front,” writes Nia-Malika Henderson in a separate piece, not even making the slightest effort to appear objective. She dialed back the optimism in the next paragraph slightly, warning that Trump still has a consistent lead in other polls.
"Trump still leads across the seven states in this new poll, but the race is tightening with the former president at 47% to Biden’s 43%,” she explains. "But Biden gained ground against Trump in six of the key states — significantly so in at least two, according to the poll."
Trump still leads in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. The poll showed Biden ahead by a point in Wisconsin and Biden and Trump tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Just on this poll alone, that would put the race at 268 Electoral College votes for Trump and 235 for Biden. Trump would have to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania, and Biden would have to win both to secure the 270 votes needed to win the presidency.
As one could expect, it wasn’t just the Biden boosters who were buzzing about the poll. The usual Never Trumpers who predicted that polls showing Trump in the lead would tighten after he secured the GOP presidential nomination have also been shouting on social media, “See? We told you this would happen.” They said the same thing when the polls tightened briefly after Nikki Haley dropped out.
And then Trump’s lead grew again.
Even Jason McMann, the lead political analyst at Morning Consult, said that even though this latest poll shows Biden has closed the gap with Trump in Wisconsin and is potentially doing the same in other swing states, he warned, "TBD on whether it holds."
Biden has closed the gap w/Trump in Wisconsin and is showing early signs of starting to close it across the wider swing-state map. TBD on whether it holds. pic.twitter.com/zuuWjgLCUr
— Jason I. McMann, PhD (@jimcmann) March 26, 2024
Henderson asserts that it was Biden’s State of the Union that moved the needle.
"So why is this happening now and how can Biden keep it up?” she asks. "According to the poll, it’s clear that Biden got a bump from his State of the Union. He began that speech with questions from the media and voters about his stamina and mental acuity. He left that speech with something he had rarely gotten before — great reviews from the press and Democrats, who described his performance as 'fiery' and ‘energetic.' When was the last time voters used those words to describe the 81-year-old Biden?"
If Henderson is right that this was because of this speech — and she might be — that’s not a good thing for Biden. While Democrats and the media keep talking about his State of the Union speech, which his team may have medicated him for, his public appearances since then have been nothing to brag about. He’s been sluggish and confused, slurring his words, and completely lacking any energy at all, even during a pre-recorded interview with MSNBC.
His most recent campaign speech in North Carolina this week was also about as low-energy as it gets. Biden’s supporters can’t spend the next seven months pointing to his State of the Union speech and expecting that to work. He’ll be out there, and people will see him. If this is a delayed reaction to Biden’s State of the Union, the left might as well enjoy the moment of hope while it lasts.
