The 2024 election may be a rematch of the 2020 election, but this race looks nothing like the one we witnessed four years ago. The dynamics are completely different, and experts on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that Trump has the advantage. I've been following the polls—national and state level—in order to keep tabs on where the election stands, and there are a sizable number of states that could flip to Trump in November.
The number of battleground states in this election is generally accepted as six, sometimes seven. But a deep dive into the polls shows that number could be as high as nine.
Let's dive in, shall we?
Arizona
I've been very nervous about Arizona for a long time, after the 2020 election and the Senate and gubernatorial elections there. Frankly, I was ready to write off Arizona as a blue state not long ago. But, the polls show the state is firmly in Trump's column. It's been nearly a year since Joe Biden polled ahead in the state based on the polls tracked by RealClearPolitics, and it appears that Trump has a solid lead there.
Wisconsin
The Cheese State will be harder for Trump to win in November than Arizona. The polls there haven't been nearly as decisive as in Arizona, but when you look at how the polls have shifted since 2022, Trump clearly has the momentum in the state right now. Biden hasn't led in the polls in the state since October. Polls have shown either Trump ahead or the race tied there, with the most recent polls showing Trump ahead. It will take more polling to know exactly what's happening in the state, but at the moment Trump has the momentum and the edge.
Michigan
Trump's victory in Michigan was a big shock to me, but it showed that a Republican can indeed win there. It flipped to Biden in 2020, and a year ago he appeared to be favored to win the state again. But a major shift occurred and Trump has had a consistent lead in the state since early November. Whether this is connected to the Israel-Hamas war, economic factors, or both, Biden is in real trouble here.
Georgia
Like Arizona, Georgia is a state that has made me nervous, but not so much anymore. Trump has a nearly 6-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is very much a toss-up state, and polls have generally been mixed there. That said, Trump retook the lead in the RCP average last week, albeit by the slimmest of margins. Expect a lot of time and energy to be spent in this state, because Biden can't win the election without it.
Nevada
Nevada hasn't voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004, but it appears to have swung heavily in Trump's favor. Perhaps due to economic factors, or maybe it's because of conservatives who fled California... maybe both. But, Trump has an RCP average lead of 5.6 points right now, and I'm feeling very good about it.
Minnesota
While not quite on anyone's radar yet, I wouldn't count out Trump being competitive in Minnesota. Biden won the state in 2020 by just over 7 points, but his lead in the state is currently just 3 points. Biden did overperform the polls in 2020, but mail-in voting may have been a factor there. Keep an eye on this state. If a recession strikes this year, it could go to Trump.
Virginia
Here's another state that isn't exactly considered a battleground state, but probably should be. Four years ago, Biden was largely leading by double digits in the polls in this state, and won it by just under ten. He is still leading in the polls there, but his RCP average lead currently sits at 4.3 points.
Maine
Here's a state that no one is looking at. However, Maine shows signs of potentially going to Trump in November, though it's a bit early to say so without more polling. The latest poll has Trump up 6 points statewide (outside the margin of error) after losing the state by nine points four years ago. If Trump could win Maine's 2nd District and statewide in November, he'd get three of the state's four Electoral College votes. That doesn't sound like much, but it could make his path to 270 Electoral College votes much smoother.
