There are several factors that typically point to an incumbent winning reelection. First and foremost, having an approval rating above 50% is typically a strong indicator. The next factor is the expansion of their coalition. Presidents who get reelected tend to increase the number of states they win in their second election. There are some notable exceptions. Franklin Delano Roosevelt, won reelection with fewer states in his last two elections than his first two. The next example is Barack Obama, who won North Carolina in 2008 but lost the state in 2012.
Biden is already on track to lose several states that he won in 2020. Many polls show that Donald Trump is leading in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Some are still rather tight and are arguably toss-ups, but another state that hasn't been on the radar appears to be another potential flip for Donald Trump. That state is Maine.
The last time Maine voted Republican was in 1988. So no one has considered it a swing state or a battleground state for years now. With only four Electoral College votes, Maine may not even seem particularly important, but in a close election, it could make a difference.
And suddenly, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows's unilateral decision to remove Trump from the ballot in Maine makes more sense, doesn't it? Her move may not matter in the long run because the Supreme Court is likely to make her actions moot, but still.
In 2020, Joe Biden won Maine by nine points statewide, winning the 1st Congressional District by 23 points, earning him three of the state's Electoral College votes, while Donald Trump won the more rural 2nd Congressional District by seven points, enabling him to take one of the state's Electoral College votes.
According to a new poll from Pan Atlantic Research, however, Biden now leads in the 1st District by eight points, and Trump leads in the 2nd District by a whopping 20 points. This translates to a six-point lead for Trump statewide and him winning three of the state's four Electoral College votes.
This is actually huge news for Donald Trump. Why? Because if he can win three Electoral College votes in Maine, he could win the election without winning Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania — the so-called "Blue Wall" states.
A recent poll shows Trump up in Maine, which means that he could potentially win three of the state's four Electoral College votes. This means that he could win the presidency without any of the "blue wall" states. pic.twitter.com/MydpcV7EUB
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) March 1, 2024
This is a pretty big deal. There isn't a lot of polling from Maine, but the previous poll from FiveThirtyEight for the state was in November, and it had Biden up by just a point, so Maine has shown signs of being more competitive than we realized. Assuming that this trend pans out in other polls, the Trump campaign is likely to invest resources there, which will force the Biden campaign to defend what was once friendly territory for him.
