The media was openly speculating about who would top the Democratic ticket in 2024 if Joe Biden didn't run as early as Biden’s first year in office. It was fair game to ask because most Americans didn’t even expect Biden to seek a second term—and even more didn’t want him to.
When Biden formally announced his 2024 candidacy earlier this year, all of that talk should have gone away. But it didn’t. Why not? Well, Biden hasn’t exactly gotten any younger or more vigorous. Frankly, he’s gotten worse. It seems like we’re regularly reporting on the gaffes, mental blocks, and other highly concerning behaviors of someone who should be in an assisted living facility, not the White House.
Of course, Biden’s troubles aren’t just related to his advanced age and cognitive decline. His poll numbers have been underwater since his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, and nothing he’s done since has been able to buoy his numbers. Meanwhile, the economy stinks, there’s an invasion at the southern border, and he’s not getting any praise for his handling of the Israel-Hamas war either.
So when one of the most pro-Biden networks starts asking what might happen if Biden drops out, it’s a big deal. That’s what NBC News has done. Despite its efforts to paint Biden as a successful president, the network sourly concedes that things aren't actually looking good for him.
"There's no way the president would go home to Delaware and voluntarily give up an office he pined for his entire political career," writes Eamon Javers of CNBC and NBC senior national political reporter Peter Nicholas. "That’s the conventional thinking in Washington, anyway."
But what if Biden takes a hard look at his poll numbers and concludes he'd rather bail than risk losing to Trump, the GOP front-runner? Or if he is feeling every bit his age (81) and no longer wants all the travel and stress that come with the job? Or if he decides the negative attention heaped on his one surviving son, Hunter, would subside if he just took himself off the ballot and retired from politics?
None of that is expected; neither is it out of the realm of possibility.
Over the last 50 years, Democrats have grown accustomed to a comparatively orderly and transparent process that empowered voters, not party bosses, to choose the presidential nominee.
Biden’s withdrawal from the race would disrupt all that, setting off a frenzied scramble for the nomination unlike anything that most Americans have seen in their lifetimes.
By early January, more than half of the filing deadlines to compete in party primaries and caucuses will have passed. So, depending on when the president were to exit the race, candidates would be jockeying to win over Biden delegates who suddenly found themselves without a candidate.
The competition to succeed him would likely convulse the party ahead of the general election. Vice President Kamala Harris would surely make the case that she is the heir apparent. As the first Black woman to serve as VP, Harris has a natural political base made up of the party’s most loyal voters.
They concede that despite the fact that Harris checks off a few boxes on the diversity checklist, ambitious Democrats aren't necessarily going to let her ascend without a challenge -- and, considering her poll numbers, it would be a strategic mistake.
Related: Is the Media About to Throw Biden Under the Bus to Save the Dems in 2024?
The possibility of Biden staying in the race is presented as equally risky for the Democrats. Citing Mitch McConnell's infamous brain freeze this past July, the authors ask, "What if something similar were to happen to Biden?"
A brain freeze of some sort, a bad fall on the steps of Air Force One, a speech that devolves into gibberish — any fresh sign of frailty would reinforce Americans’ impression that Biden is too old for the job. Biden’s doctor proclaimed him “fit for duty” in February, but voters have their own ideas of how a president should look, act and sound — and Biden isn’t measuring up on that score.
The White House has organized itself in ways that minimize the chances of a Biden stumble — physical or otherwise. It’s no coincidence that Biden is forsaking the long staircase on Air Force One for the shorter one that unfolds from the belly of the plane.
What a bubble the liberal media must live in to think that Biden has never had a brain freeze, taken a fall, or spoken gibberish. Are they really so insulated from reality that they don't realize the reason why the White House has gone to extraordinary lengths to protect Biden from certain mishaps? Apparently so.
But when you read between the lines, it's clear that NBC News realizes that whether Biden stays in or drops out, it's a huge gamble for the Democrats because Biden had the audacity to seek a second term when people had been speculating for years he wasn't going to seek reelection in the first place.
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