Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) claims he is “thinking seriously” about leaving the Democratic Party before the 2024 election.
“I’m thinking seriously. For me, I have to have peace of mind, basically. The brand has become so bad — the D brand and R brand. In West Virginia, the D brand because it’s [the] national brand. It’s not the Democrats in West Virginia, it’s the Democrats in Washington,” he told West Virginia radio host Hoppy Kercheval. “You’ve heard me say a million times I’m not a Washington Democrat.”
Manchin added that he’s been thinking about this for a long time, but hasn’t made any decisions. Of course, there have been rumors of Manchin considering leaving the Democratic Party as far back as October of 2021. Manchin dismissed the rumors, saying, “I can’t control rumors, and it’s bull****.” However, he did acknowledge that he’s approached “every day” by Republicans about switching parties and has said that it probably would be “easier” to join the GOP than remain a Democrat.
But he’s not even talking about joining the GOP now. If he leaves the Democratic Party, he’d become an Independent.
This isn’t particularly surprising, because Manchin is likely to lose reelection as a Democrat. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) left the Democratic Party last year but still caucuses with the Democrats. There’s little reason to believe that Manchin wouldn’t do the same.
The only difference is that as an independent, Democrats could run their own candidate in 2024, potentially giving Manchin a shot at winning a three-way race as an independent. While polls show that Sinema would actually be a spoiler for a Republican candidate in a three-way race in Arizona, it is unlikely that Manchin, as an independent, would be a spoiler for a Republican candidate in a state that went so overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020.
Related: Will Joe Manchin Run in 2024?
It’s true that Manchin has managed to get elected and reelected as a Democrat in a red state. However, he’s experienced diminishing margins of victory in his Senate contests since 2012. He won comfortably in 2012 by 24 points, but he only narrowly won his reelection in 2018 against Republican candidate Patrick Morrisey and didn’t even break 50%. A recent poll from East Carolina University’s Center for Survey Research showed that Manchin trailing his potential GOP challenger, Gov. Jim Justice, by 22 points, and he has a net negative approval rating of -26 points.
It is unlikely that Manchin would pull support away from Justice in a three-way race with another Democrat on the ballot. If Manchin figures this out, he’ll likely announce his retirement rather than risk losing.
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