It pains me to say this, but things aren’t looking good for the Republican Party to take back Kyrsten Sinema’s Senate seat. Arizona has long been a red state, but it’s been trending purple in recent years and now has two Democrat senators.
I haven’t given up all hope in Arizona, but for months now, the warning signs have been there. Arizona Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego has shown considerable strength in past polls, be it in a two-way race with a Republican, or a three-way race with Kirsten Sinema as an independent, though Sinema is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country.
Though she hasn’t formally announced a campaign yet, according to recent reports, Lake is staffing up and preparing for an October launch. Polling shows that she is the runaway frontrunner for the nomination if she does indeed enter the race.
I think a Kari Lake Senate run is a bad idea.
At one point, I thought her candidacy was a great idea. She narrowly lost her bid for governor in a race rife with irregularities, and it seemed that she’d be a great opponent to Kyrsten Sinema. Polls even showed she could win the race.
But things have changed.
Lake’s approval ratings in the state are underwater, which means she’s not a viable candidate. According to a Noble Predictive Insights poll of registered voters in Arizona, Lake has a 51% disapproval rating, compared to a 35% approval rating. The poll found that independents aren’t too fond of her, either. Her efforts to challenge the results of the gubernatorial election have clearly soured Arizona voters on her. In an OH Predictive Insights poll conducted earlier this year, Lake lost to Gallego in a three-way race with Sinema and came up ten points short in a two-way matchup.
She’s not viable.
That said, any Republican candidate is going to have a tough time in this race. If you thought Sinema — a liberal and former registered Democrat — joining the race would be a spoiler for the Democrat, you were wrong. According to the latest Emerson Poll, Sheriff Mark Lamb is best positioned to win, tying Gallego with 42% support in a head-to-head matchup. However, with Sinema on the ballot, Gallego leads Lamb 36% to 29%, with the incumbent grabbing 25%. The same goes for Brian Wright, another Republican in the race.
“It appears Senator Sinema pulls more support from Republican voters than Democrats on the ballot. About 21% of Republicans would vote for Sinema with Lamb on the ballot, and 34% of Republicans would support Sinema with Wright on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “By contrast, Sinema only pulls about 8% of Democratic support from Gallego.”
Since Lake isn’t a declared candidate, Emerson did not include her in their general election matchups.
I’ve long wanted to believe that Kari Lake could deliver on winning back the Senate seat from Sinema. Unfortunately, that’s no longer the case. Polling suggests that Lamb is the GOP’s best bet. The 2024 Senate map is very positive for the GOP, and they’ve been favored to win back the majority. In fact, certain forecasts suggest that if the GOP wins the majority in 2024, it may be a few cycles before Democrats can realistically regain the majority. This means that the bigger the majority that Republicans can secure in 2024, the safer the upper chamber will be against a potential shift back to Democratic control.
This is an opportunity Arizona Republicans can’t afford to mess up. Kari Lake needs to sit this race out.
