In 2022, Democrats spent millions of dollars boosting “far-right” and “MAGA” candidates in Republican primaries, believing that those candidates weren’t viable in a general election, and helping stave off a red wave in the midterm elections. The strategy arguably paid off, as Republicans only managed to secure a thin majority in the House.
Is it time to play by their rules?
As PJM’s Rick Moran noted, Joe Biden’s reelection campaign is struggling to deal with the problem of Iowa and New Hampshire in 2024. South Carolina was promised to be the first primary state as part of a deal for Rep. Jim Clyburn to endorse Joe Biden in 2020 and save his candidacy after he choked in both the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, placing in 4th and 5th place respectively.
Had Clyburn not rescued Biden, he’d most certainly be in an old age home drinking pureed food from a straw today. This fact underscores the real problem Biden has with Iowa and New Hampshire not giving up their influential slots in the Democrat Party primaries. If Biden doesn’t participate in these contests, not only is it possible for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to get as much as 30% of the vote, but, as Rick noted, Biden risks the possibility of not breaking 50% in New Hampshire, which, history has shown, can devastate the campaign of an incumbent.
“In the 1968 New Hampshire primary, President Lyndon Johnson got just 48% of the vote against Sen. Eugene McCarthy who received 42%,” Rick wrote. “A few days later, Johnson pulled out of the primaries.”
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Or if Biden’s name doesn’t appear on the ballot in the Granite State, Kennedy could win the N.H. primary outright. Either scenario would undermine Biden’s presidential bid, and potentially force Biden out of the primary. This doesn’t mean that RFK Jr. would bulldoze his way to the Democrat nomination, but it would cause a flood of Democrats who have been waiting in the wings for Biden to either die or retire to jump in the race. Most certainly, we’d see Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) run.
Polls have shown that Kamala is still largely favored as the Biden alternative in 2024, but polls also show that she loses big time in the general election. An unexpected open Democrat primary would be problematic for the party. As candidates who normally would have spent months laying the groundwork for a national campaign would have to scramble to put together a national campaign. Kamala Harris would likely inherit Biden’s campaign infrastructure, giving her the edge over any other candidate who might try to jump in late in the game.
Make no mistake about it, the Democratic Party doesn’t want RFK Jr. as its candidate. If Biden were to drop out, it would be catastrophic for the party.
So should the Republican Party do what it can to boost RFK Jr. in Iowa and New Hampshire? If Democrats can meddle in Republican primaries, why can’t Republicans meddle in theirs, right?
