Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has a name that’s still magic with many Democrats and has national political fundraising contacts that could be tapped to raise a lot of money for his presidential run. He’s also leading the “Anybody but Biden” race among Democrats. And since that’s a fairly large percentage of Democratic voters at this point — 20% in the latest CNN poll — Biden strategists are getting a little nervous about RFK’s longshot candidacy.
The first two Democratic presidential nominating contests are still to be held in Iowa and New Hampshire, although Biden would prefer to pay off a campaign debt from 2020 to his good friend and ally Rep. Jim Clyburn and make South Carolina the first primary state.
This idea is being fiercely resisted by leading Democrats in both states. New Hampshire Democrats are willing to have their delegates taken from them — the punishment for holding a primary before South Carolina — just as long as they’re still the “First in the Nation” primary.
So with about seven months to go before the first primaries, the Biden team is looking at all the options — including the possibility of sitting out the first primaries in the very white Iowa (83%) and New Hampshire (87%). The DNC wants the first primaries in South Carolina on Feb. 3, Nevada and New Hampshire on Feb. 6, Georgia on Feb. 13, and Michigan on Feb. 27. And the reason is that Biden has big trouble waiting for him in Iowa and New Hampshire.
“My path through the Democratic primary system, I have to win the primaries,” the Democratic contender told Michael Smerconish on SiriusXM when Smerconish asked him about his path to winning the Democratic nomination.
“I think that President Biden is not going to even put his name in Iowa and New Hampshire. So I think he’s not even going to compete,” Kennedy added.
Related: Biden Campaign Scrambles to Avoid Major Embarrassment in New Hampshire
In 2020, Biden placed fourth in the Iowa Caucuses and fifth in New Hampshire. Clyburn endorsed Biden shortly after his New Hampshire debacle, rescuing his candidacy from an embarrassing implosion.
But in both New Hampshire and Iowa, Biden had to contend with Bernie Sanders, another left-wing populist. This time, Sanders is on the sidelines, and with some observers predicting that Kennedy could get as much as 30% of the Democratic vote in both states, it raises the possibility that, along with Marianne Williamson pulling about 10% of the vote, can Joe Biden even get 50% in New Hampshire?
In the 1968 New Hampshire primary, President Lyndon Johnson got just 48% of the vote against Sen. Eugene McCarthy who received 42%. A few days later, Johnson pulled out of the primaries.
Could history repeat itself?
Anything is possible. Biden has pledged not to have his name appear on the New Hampshire ballot if the DNC disqualifies New Hampshire delegates because they disobeyed the national party’s order of primaries. This gives RFK a clear shot at dethroning the king.
D.C. Democrats have noticed. As NHJournal has reported, Biden’s decision to push New Hampshire out of the official FITN slot meant his name wouldn’t appear on the ballot. That would give Kennedy a huge opportunity to win the first primary of the 2024 cycle, an embarrassing outcome for an 81-year-old incumbent president. (Contrary to multiple media reports, New Hampshire Democrats will hold the first primary of 2024 and on the same day as the GOP.)
What will Biden do? Democratic strategist Ed Kilgore, writing in “New York” magazine, said Biden couldn’t possibly participate in an unsanctioned primary the DNC bumped at his request. “It would be a bit absurd for the party’s leader to violate the party’s rules,” Kilgore wrote.
But Lisa Kashinsky at Politico reported that “a Biden campaign aide said the president and his team would abide by any sanctions imposed by the DNC if that were to happen.”
There would be enormous pressure on Biden to drop out if he failed to get 50% of the vote in either Iowa or New Hampshire. An entire faction of the party is dying to rush in and proclaim Biden too old, too weak, too unpopular to run for re-election. It would be hard for an 81-year-old Biden to resist that kind of pressure.
