Ever since the leak of the draft opinion of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, there’s been speculation as to what impact it will have in November. In the wake of the leak, CNN’s S.E. Cupp predicted, “This gives Dems a fighting chance in [November].”
But numbers didn’t really back that up. A CNN poll taken after the Dobbs draft majority opinion was leaked found that enthusiasm to vote in November increased slightly for both the left and the right, while the generic Republican edge over Democrats even increased slightly.
After the final ruling was released in June, an analysis of generic polling suggested that the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling has had minimal impact on the forthcoming midterms. Voters were clearly less concerned about abortion than they were with economic issues.
However, in the past couple of weeks, there’s been a measurable shift in polling.
The latest Politico poll has Democrats up 2 points, Monmouth has them up 3, and YouGov puts them up 5 points. Those aren’t the only polls we can look at, however, as Trafalgar has Republicans up 8 points, Emerson has them up 1 point, and Rasmussen gives the GOP a 3-point edge.
So, yeah, the polling is all over the place, but the swing is clear. Just looking at Rasmussen, we can see that. In the past three polls, the GOP edge has gone from +10 to +5 to +3.
Perhaps more telling is that the RealClearPolitics average has the GOP at only +0.1—an undeniable swing in the Democrats’ favor compared to when the GOP had a nearly 5-point edge back in April.
So, what’s going on? Democrats might argue that this is because of abortion, but I find that hard to believe. The draft opinion of Dobbs was leaked in May, and the final opinion came out in June. The peak impact of that decision on polling has likely come and gone at this point — and it wasn’t that big. After the final ruling was released, an analysis of generic polling suggested that the Dobbs ruling has had minimal impact on the forthcoming midterms because the voters are far less concerned about abortion now than they are with economic issues. Hence the reason why the GOP’s standing in the generic ballot improved at times after Dobbs.
The most likely explanation for the shift in polling is the recent decline in gas prices, which has given consumers a modest sense of relief. Inflation is still high, consumer prices are still high, and, frankly, gas prices are still high, but the cost of filling up your tank has gone down significantly since June — nearly a dollar per gallon.
The @WhiteHouse graph in context. The yellow portion is what @PressSec showed. https://t.co/FilwEvztYF pic.twitter.com/o9WhlzWYzH
— Margolis & Cox (@MargolisandCox) August 1, 2022
It hardly erases the price increases that have happened on Joe Biden’s watch, but it’s certainly enough for people to feel some relief.
That’s not to say that Biden deserves any credit for bringing prices down. He does not. But, presidents often get blamed for gas prices when they go up and get the credit for when they go down. Biden’s approval ratings have seen a modest recovery in recent weeks, going from a RealClearPolitics average of -20.7 points on July 21 to -17 points on August 5. I strongly believe that this is due to the decline in gas prices.
Also for our VIPs: Media Decides a President Can Impact Gas Prices Now That They’re Going Down
This is good news for Biden and the Democrats, but it may be short-lived. Gas prices are still at a historic high, and just because they’ve gone down doesn’t mean they’re at a level that Americans are completely happy with, which means that the current shift in the polls in the Democrats’ favor will be temporary. Also, as we’ve previously reported, gas prices are reportedly likely to increase again and reach new highs before Election Day. If this polling is a reflection of gas prices, Democrats may be doomed yet.
