Joe Biden is, without a doubt, politically impotent. His approval ratings have been underwater for nearly year. A recent Civiqs poll found that only 29% of voters approve of the job he is doing as president, while 58% disapprove. Other polls show similarly disastrous numbers; the latest New York Times poll has Biden at 33% approval. Additional numbers are just as troublesome for him, as an overwhelming majority of voters think the nation is moving in the wrong direction, and a whopping 94% of Democrats under 30 years old would prefer someone else as their party’s nominee in 2024.
But, according to Charles Cooke, a senior writer at National Review, Donald Trump is just as politically dead as Joe Biden, and for the good of the country, he shouldn’t run for president in 2024. Cooke cites the New York Times poll’s hypothetical 2024 matchup between Trump and Biden, which put Biden at 44% to Trump’s 41%.
“That’s right. Joe Biden is on political death row. And yet, in the same poll that has delivered his death warrant, he still beats Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup,” Cooke points out. “If Republican primary voters look at this information and decide to nominate Trump again anyway, they will have nobody to blame for the consequences but themselves.”
It’s easy to see that Cooke has a legitimate point here. With Biden being so politically toxic, it stands to reason that Trump should be easily leading him in 2024 hypothetical match-up polls.
But is Trump’s political career really just as dead in the water as Biden’s? I would argue that it’s not that simple. First, it should be noted that Biden’s edge is within the margin of error, but more importantly, this is by no means the only 2024 matchup poll between Trump and Biden, and Trump is ahead in the vast majority of them.
The latest Harvard-Harris poll had Trump up by 3, and the latest Emerson poll had Trump up by 5. In May, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that, “In a rematch with Trump, 73% of Democrats would vote for Biden while 89% of Republicans would vote for Trump. Among unaffiliated voters in a Biden-Trump rematch, 48% would vote for Trump and 27% would vote for Biden, while 17% would vote for someone else.”
This does not sound like Trump is politically dead. But these are just a few select polls, right? Sure, but according to the 2024 matchup polls tracked by RealClearPolitics, Trump leads in the overwhelming majority of them, and has a RealClearPolitics average of +1.7.
Related: DeSantis Rising? Will He Eclipse Trump in 2024?
So, is Trump politically dead? No, not at all. But that doesn’t mean that he’s not underperforming where we might expect him to be against someone as politically toxic as Biden. If Trump decides to run in 2024, Republican voters will have to carefully consider who they nominate—especially since there appear to be viable alternatives to Trump who may prove to be more effective, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. I have struggled with this choice myself, and as much as I believe Trump deserves to be vindicated, I still have my issues with his demeanor and lack of discipline sometimes.
Trump may not be politically dead, but that doesn’t mean the GOP wouldn’t be better off with new blood in 2024.
