How long will the Grand Old Party (GOP) be grand? Or even a party?
I am generally opposed to mixing politics and sports, but as a hardcore fan of a Pac-12 school (the University of Arizona), I am suddenly familiar with how quickly something that one is used to and that seems like it will be around for a long time can disappear. I can’t help but wonder if the Republican Party is about to “Poof!” into the ether.
In the summer of 2022, it was announced that the University of Southern California and the University of California, Los Angeles would be departing for the Big Ten Conference beginning in 2024. It seemed odd — two west coast schools joining a midwestern conference — and it left the Pacific-12 Conference with the shock that the two schools in its largest television market would soon be gone.
Still, it wasn’t time to panic. The Pac-12 had hired a commissioner the year before who was supposed to be good at negotiating a new media deal for the league. It was assumed that the remaining 10 universities would be happy and that the conference would bring in some new schools.
That media deal took too long to materialize, and when it did, it was awful. Since the last week of July, the once mighty, 108-year-old Pac-12 has been reduced to two schools. Chris wrote about some of the madness just after it happened.
As I monitor the GOP in-fighting now that primary debates have begun, my sense of foreboding is something new.
Republicans fight a lot. That’s usually a feature, not a bug. We aren’t a hive mind like the Democrats, although that does seem like it would be more functional on occasion. It’s just not in our electoral DNA.
The looming problem for the GOP heading into 2024 is that the dysfunctional, non-hive mind family has degenerated into bitterly partisan tribalism. I mean, it’s ugly out there. I’m the product of a lifetime of dysfunctional holiday dinner fights; if I say it’s ugly, it’s ugly.
The hardcore Trump supporters — I call them Escalator Magas — are very problematic. They’ve decided that Trump is a god, not a politician. I’ve been on record for ages saying that the hero worship of politicians is a lib thing, not a conservative thing. Politicians are our employees, not our gurus or heroes. America functions best when the electorate understands that.
Relevant: Conservatives Don’t Worship Politicians—That’s a Lib Thing
I have praised Trump’s presidency for years, but that doesn’t matter to the Escalator crowd. One can’t offer even the mildest criticism of Trump without the Truth Social hordes launching into a collective diaper-soiling. It’s tedious.
It’s even worse if one dares say ANYTHING positive about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Should you even accidentally do so, it’s like every banshee in the history of Celtic lore begins keening in unison. I wrote a Morning Briefing last week that praised DeSantis’s actions in Florida after Hurricane Idalia and now I’ve got an email stalker who wants to make sure I know every low-t bad nickname he’s come up with for the governor.
The Escalator approach is to convince everyone in the GOP to abandon primary support for any candidate who isn’t Trump. They’ve decided that the best way to do this is to be as unhinged as possible and alienate the people they want to win over. I’ve written many times that I don’t buy into the argument that Trump can’t win the general election. His hardcore fans have now convinced me that they will do everything in their power to drive away people who might consider voting for him, but aren’t interested in joining a cult.
It doesn’t matter how many disclaimers I write, I’ve learned that no Escalator MAGA can understand this sentence: I will enthusiastically vote for Trump if he is the nominee.
On the other side of the GOP divide are the people who are trying to make a rational case for DeSantis. At first glance, it would seem to be an easy case to make. The polling thus far would indicate that they aren’t making it well. That’s because it’s difficult to do when trying to woo voters who have actually convinced themselves that the most anti-federal establishment American politician in a generation is a Bush guy and a member of the Swamp. DeSantis was a conservative rock star during COVID and the Trump crowd has completely rewritten the story to concoct an alt-reality.
One they all now believe.
The biggest difference between the two groups is that people like me will vote for Trump if he’s on the ballot next year. In early August, I wrote that I was endorsing “Generic Republican” for president, meaning that I’ll vote for whichever candidate in the GOP primary survives this gauntlet. The Democrats are odious and un-American. Voting for ANY Republican in 2024 is an easy choice.
On the other hand, the truest Trump devotees are giving off a strong, “take their ball and go home” vibe if Trump isn’t on the ballot.
Any way you look at the GOP mess, the possibility that the Dems keep the White House after next year is a strong one, especially with the power of the Magic Mail-In Ballot Machine. If that happens, the GOP will be reduced to a shell of its former self, much like the once-vaunted Pac-12. A lot of people will be left asking, “What happened there?!?!?”
First about the Republican Party; then about the United States of America.
Click the button below to get the Morning Briefing emailed to you every weekday. Have your coffee with me, people. It’s free and it supports conservative media!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member