Ricochet on Conspiracy Theories

From Claire Berlinski:

1) It is incredibly hard to keep secrets. The logic of this point is intuitively appreciated by any man who has ever had more than one girlfriend at the same time.

2) The more people who know the secret, the less likely it is to stay a secret. This is why men who have more than one girlfriend at the same time usually try to keep the circle of people who know about this to a minimum.

3) It is highly unlikely that a major political event would happen owing to the agency of a very small number of people. Think about the manpower required just to make a small thing happen–to run a corner grocery store, for example. The bigger the thing you’re trying to do, the more manpower and expertise you need. If you’re going to stage a coup, control the currency markets, take over the media, or assassinate the president, you’re going to need a big staff. Therefore, it is incredibly unlikely that conspiracies will stay secret.

4) It is incredibly hard to organize anything. Most people grasp this intuitively. If it were so easy to organize people, no one would ever get stressed about planning a wedding.

5) It is incredibly hard to get people to work effectively toward a goal. Anyone who has ever managed a small business knows how hard it is to get employees to do what they’re supposed to do even when the goal is clear and even when everyone knows what they’re supposed to do and why. To pull off even a modest goal in business, you need sophisticated communications, training, a management hierarchy, accountants, endless meetings. It is extremely hard to do even when you don’t have to do it in secret.  Adding the imperative of secrecy to such an operation would make it exponentially harder–and thus less likely to have happened.

Plus, cats in tinfoil.