Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is predicting a large increase in tax refunds in the coming year, welcome news for American taxpayers after years of rising costs.
Speaking on the All-In podcast Christmas week, Bessent optimistically prophesied: “I can see that we’re gonna have a gigantic refund year in the first quarter because working Americans did not change their withholdings. I think households could see, depending on the number of workers, $1,000- $2,000 refunds.”
Bessent’s prediction reaffirms that of the Tax Foundation from earlier this month, which foresaw tax refunds will be bigger than usual during the upcoming filing season thanks to Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and its tax cuts for 2025.
Tax Foundation estimates led to the following conclusions:
OBBBA reduced individual taxes by $144 billion for 2025, and outside estimates suggest up to $100 billion of that could be received as higher refunds this filing season, pushing average refunds up by up to $1,000.
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Millions of taxpayers are expected to reap the benefits of the larger refunds. This news from experts, confirmed by Bessent, was exactly the sort of Christmas surprise Americans wanted. This is why we voted out Bidenomics and voted Trump into office.
In fact, Joe Biden — or rather his handlers — raised taxes. Democrats always jack up taxes in order to increase spending on unconstitutional, unnecessary, and/or actively harmful projects. Inevitably, tax increases also always lead to economic stagnation and financial regression. They act as sabotage on the economy.
But the Trump administration has cut taxes. Indeed, the economy was the number one issue for Americans during the 2024 election, and it propelled Donald Trump and the Republicans to victory. Now we can experience the effects of that election.
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Tax Foundation listed a total of seven OBBBA tax cuts:
• Maximum child tax credit increase of $200
• Standard deduction increase of $750 for single filers and $1,500 for joint filers
• State and local tax (SALT) deduction cap increase to $40,000 for taxpayers earning under $500,000
• New $6,000 additional deduction for seniors that starts phasing out when taxpayers make more than $75,000 ($150,000 joint)
• New $10,000 auto loan interest deduction that starts phasing out when taxpayers make more than $100,000 ($200,000 joint)
• New deduction for up to $25,000 in tip income that starts phasing out when taxpayers earn more than $150,000 ($300,000 joint)
• New deduction for up to $12,500 in overtime income ($25,000 for joint filers) that starts phasing out when taxpayers earn more than $150,000 ($300,000 joint)
These are the reasons why Americans should be receiving larger than usual refunds. Here’s hoping that the prediction comes true not only for this upcoming year, but for the rest of the Trump administration.
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