Someone audaciously predicting at the start of 2025 that Israel would, in the coming year, carry out a nearly flawless military campaign against Iran, seizing control of its airspace within 48 hours, followed by the U.S. knocking out its key nuclear sites, would probably have been met with eye rolls. Similarly, a prognostication that a former mainstream conservative thought leader would declare that Islam poses no real threat, while at the same time hinting that Jews were responsible for Charlie Kirk's assassination, would likely have been dismissed.
What surprises are in store in 2026? The year has already started with a bang, with the January 3 raid on Venezuela, a key ally of Iran, that swept up Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia. Will Iran's Ali Khamenei be next? Will the rising tide of antisemitism in the West bring more tragedy like what we saw at Bondi Beach in Australia?
In a YouTube video, “The Year That Changes Everything: Israeli General on What Will Happen in 2026,” a man who foresaw many of the events that followed the October 7 attacks in Israel offers his view on what to expect in the coming year.
Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi, the founder and chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), was ranked the 46th most influential Jew in 2025 by the Jerusalem Post. Avivi believes the first half of 2026, which will still be dominated by fighting, will be very different from the second half. Even though he thinks Israel became a “regional global power” after October 7, and despite the current ceasefire in Gaza, Avivi says the war is not over.
All the different arenas are still active. Our enemies are much, much weaker, but still active and still trying to regroup. So when we look at Gaza, we haven’t reached the goals of war yet. We have one more hostage who is not alive, Gvili. And also, Hamas hasn’t been dismantled, Gaza hasn’t been demilitarized, and we haven’t created a new or different kind of government that is not Hamas, not jihadism, not the Palestinian Authority.
He thinks the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will be active against Hamas and demilitarize the Gaza Strip, especially after last month’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which confirmed they were aligned on the issue of Hamas needing to be dismantled. Alas, Hamas is not the only threat to the Jewish state. Avivi continues:
At the same time, we see the IDF attacking on an everyday basis in Lebanon, weakening Hezbollah, but we also see it’s not enough. The U.S. demanded that Hezbollah be dismantled by the end of the year. It didn’t happen. And now Israel has the green light to attack Hezbollah much more fiercely in order to weaken it. So our expectation is to see the IDF enhancing dramatically the attacks in Lebanon in order to weaken Hezbollah. The IDF is also getting ready to deal with the Houthis.
What do these threats — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis — have in common? They are all proxies of Iran, which Avivi sees as the biggest threat and the most likely immediate theater of action in 2026.
The regime [is] dealing with huge internal problems: no water, no electricity, riots all over Iran, and people getting more and more emboldened again and willing to fight this vicious regime. But at the same time, the Iranian regime is rebuilding their ballistic missile capabilities, trying to renew activities that have to do with the nuclear plans and trying to bring more air defense. And we know they want revenge. We know they want to shoot Israel, and we need to attack first. And I think that maybe the first thing Israel needs to do is attack in Iran. Before Hezbollah, before Gaza, before the Houthis, we need to deal with Iran. And obviously Israel is doing a lot of preparations for such a scenario.
For the first time ever, Avivi feels confident that protests against the regime in Iran might be successful, because, unlike during the Biden and Obama administrations, the U.S. under Trump is supporting the people rising up rather than the regime. Because the Iranian people love Israel, Avivi thinks that if the regime falls, Israel could have a good relationship with the country as it did in the past — a potential game-changer when combined with Israel's improving relationship with the Sunni world. Avivi also credits Trump’s actions in Venezuela with weakening Iran, which has sponsored Hezbollah in Venezuela.
I think that first and foremost it’s a message, you know, the U.S. is, again, you know, the superpower and the strongest force on the globe, and shaping a reality and being proactive. Some in the U.S. might say, how does this help, you know, America First, but this is exactly America First. Because you are talking about a country, Venezuela, that has sent endless amounts of drugs into the U.S. We know how terrible the situation in the U.S. is, talking about the drug addicts and the amounts of drugs that are going into the U.S. to destroy the American society. A lot of it comes from this area of Venezuela, Colombia, unfortunately also Mexico. And also, Venezuela is maybe one of the closest partners of Iran and Hezbollah. Iranians and Hezbollah have built in all industries in Venezuela, including drones and other capabilities ... and this created very big dangers for the U.S. in the backyard of the U.S. So I think really dealing with this terrible regime and moving Venezuela to be part of the West and part of the Western alliance — this is a huge deal.
So while the first half of the year might be war-heavy, with Israel also likely to be attacked, Avivi thinks the second part of the year will see peace agreements, treaties, and a booming economy in Israel. As antisemitism continues to rise in much of the West, Avivi says Israel will do its part to help Jews everywhere, but he thinks many will learn that "as the light is going out in many countries in the West, Israel is a beacon of light.” This, he thinks, will result in a wave of Jews moving to Israel like we've never seen before.
Related: 2025’s Non-Carlsons: Prominent Non-Jews Who Stand With Jews and Israel
Will worries like Zorhan Mamdani’s win in New York City or Tucker Carlson’s malevolent attempt to mainstream hatred of Israel push American Jews to join that wave? Or will Trump’s ongoing America First policies make them more determined to stay in the country that has historically been a refuge?
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