“Superstorm” Sandy Devastates New York, New Jersey, Connecticut
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You all don’t need me to tell you what happened tonight; you’ve all seen the pictures by now, and watched the live TV reports, and heard the accounts. Hurricane Sandy, precisely as feared, brought a 9-foot storm surge — well within the predicted 6- to 11-foot range — into New York Harbor, which combined with the 5-foot astronomical high tide to create a record-shattering water level of 13.88 feet at Battery Park.
The water level was above 10 feet — the approximate threshold for major NYC flooding — for more than 5 consecutive hours. The results, of course, were devastating. Neighborhoods submerged; cars floating in the streets; the subway system flooded; a major hospital forced to evacuate; raging fires all over the city, with limited ability to fight them; and on and on. And it’s not over yet.
At the peak of the flood, Ground Zero in Lower Manhattan looked like this:
We’re going to wake up Tuesday to a terribly changed and damaged New York. I fear we may also wake up to more deaths than any of us can bear, as someone once said on another terrible day in the city’s history — although I confess I really have no idea what to expect in terms of death toll. We can only hope and pray it’s relatively low.
Of course, Sandy didn’t just hit one city. Eight years ago, a friend of mine commented on the movie The Day After Tomorrow: “Once again, the whole world is endangered, and to us that means…New York.” It felt a bit that way on Monday, as the Big Apple’s troubles overshadowed the equally calamitous impact that Sandy had along the New Jersey shore, where places like Atlantic City and Ocean City were hugely devastated by the surge. Long Island and Connecticut was also very hard-hit. We’ll learn more about the extent of damage in the coming days, but it’s clear this storm was very much the monster we feared, and that its impact was widely felt.
On that note, don’t forget what I wrote earlier, and reiterated tonight in a tweet RTd almost 500 times now: I do not want to hear any government or civic official saying that Sandy “caught us off guard,” or that it was “unexpected,” or that its impacts were “worse than we expected,” or anything like that. Such statements are blatantly false. Sandy was an extraordinarily well-forecasted storm (and thank goodness for that), and what it did yesterday is precisely what has been forecast for many days now by the computer models. There was absolutely no reason for anyone to be surprised, and you should not tolerate CYA excuses that claim otherwise. That includes claims about the “surprising” surge, which, as I mentioned, was not 14 feet in New York, but rather 9 feet, well within the 6-11′ forecast range (high tide provided the other 5′ of the 14′ total water level). I would view any “caught us off guard” statement by any public official as, effectively, a letter of resignation.
Relatedly, anyone who did not realize how much damage a 6-11′ surge on top of a 5′ high tide could do to New York City simply has not been paying attention, because this scenario has been discussed ad nauseum for years. What we saw on TV out of the Big Apple last night was distressing and horrifying, but it was not, by any stretch of the imagination, surprising. Rather, like Katrina in New Orleans, it was a long-feared nightmare come true.
Anyway… I’m beat, folks. I’ve had some long days of almost nonstop blogging and tweeting about this storm, as it became clear what a threat it was — I think I slept a combined total of six hours the last two nights, and while I could do that sort of thing more easily during Katrina at age 23, I just don’t have the stamina for it anymore, at age 30 (er, 31…today, post-midnight, is my birthday). So I don’t have time to put together a comprehensive summary right now, and my coverage Tuesday will probably be a lot lighter, too. Really, with the exception of some Great Lakes winds and some Appalachian snows, plus the ever-present threat of inland flooding, we’re mostly past the “Weather Nerd”-geared part of this story now, anyway. I’m your guy for obsessive tidal-gauge analysis, one-stop landfall data shopping, and wildly premature hurricane-related election speculation, but there are countless other, better sources for the more ordinary task of reporting or aggregating news about storm damage now that it’s happened. Even so, I will probably do a wrap-up post at some point, once we know more, and I will certainly keep updating my Twitter with some regularity. But I will be gradually winding down my Weather Nerd coverage of Sandy. Thanks for reading, everyone.
I’ll leave you with a donation link for the American Red Cross.
You’ve been my primary source of information through this. Thank you for the awesome coverage throughout.
Good work, Brendan!
Did you happen to see the backhanded compliment paid your way at NRO yesterday? Campaign 2012 blogger Jim Geraghty wrote (from Alexandria, VA):
That definitely sounds like the Brendan we all know!
Happy Birthday, and thanks
By the way you are dead-on about how well the models had forecast this storm. In particular, the ECMWF nailed this storm’s track damn near perfectly. Any idea what the ECMWF model predicts for next Tuesday? And I’m NOT talking about the weather…..
I’d also note that Russia could have set off an EMP over Lower Manhattan last night for all we know, and I’m pretty sure nobody would have noticed. We are waking up to an epic disaster up there.
Fortunately for us in Northern VA, thus far, sustained winds have been milder than predicted (30s and 40s with some gusts last night, but calmed significantly this morning). Dominion Power shows a good amount of power outages, but nowhere near what we experienced with the derecho in June. We’re still under a flood warning, but as to rain, we never saw it come down in high rates for sustained periods, so I don’t think we’re too far out of the normal range for winter storms around here (especially the non-snow kinds…).
Schools are closed for snow here in my corner of rural Appalachia (SW VA, SE KY, and NE TN – strangely, I didn’t hear any NW NC closings this morning). Sandy is bringing us early snows. I don’t have any at my home yet, because I am in a lower lying valley, but I will because my lower lying valley is still pretty far up in the mountains. The wind is howling outside my door and it is cold out there.
We are praying for and sending aid to the folks more directly (and seriously) affected by this. God bless the NE corridor. I am amazed at the destruction I saw yesterday. If it happened here, it would affect fewer and generally better prepared people. I will take being a backward Appalachian yokel local today. The folks in NYC and the surrounding areas seem like deer in headlights right now. We yokels just drag out the chain saws and start cleaning up.
Happy birthday Brendan. I want you to know that the ghost of Alan Sullivan has been following you on PJ Media. His young father drove the second car through the Battery Park Tunnel at its opening. And wouldn’t you know it, the beater had a flat tire. Well, at least Andrew didn’t drown!
Happy Birthday Brendan, Thank you for everything you have done for this and past storms. I wish you and your family a wonderful day.
Happy birthday. 31! Heck I just hit 70 and I’m tired just from reading about it! I live in Perth Western Australia but have family in West Palm Beach and friends in the DC area, so I still welcome your excellent commentary and explanations. You work stood out during Katrina for the same reason it still does. You manage a nice balance between an ability to discuss technical issues and map their potential consequences without fearmongering or missing their potential gravity. Thanks for the continued excellent work.!
You are getting tired and you are 31? Thanks for what you did.
After you are rested, let us know why Bloomberg should resign or be kicked out. Specifically. I can guess where he screwed up, but any insight you have will be welcomed.
Happy Birthday and thanks for your invaluable reporting on Sandy. Get some rest!
Brendan – Thanks for your exhaustive and accurate coverage, and for calling out our mayor for his irresponsible remarks playing down the impending disaster. (And, incidentally, misleading a non-trivial number of constituents who suffered by acting on his advice.)
Irene was a warning shot; I recall you and other reporters pointing out that we came within ~6 inches of the sea wall being overtopped. The tragedy is that that sea wall could’ve been built up at $10B, and that’s before accounting for the enormous loss of productivity as the transit system operates in crippled status.
Here’s wishing you many happy returns.
Where do you put evacuees from a densely populated mega-metropolis when a storm like Sandy is impacting everyplace for hundreds of miles for an extended period? This was the NYC area’s dilemma, and there seems to have been no useful answer from politicians, safety personnel, or bloggers. Exactly what plan would have worked better than what they tried?
Sorry – the comment software does not like greater and less than symbols: the last sentence of the 2nd paragraph should read: “The tragedy is that the sea wall could’ve been built up for less than $100MM, and instead the aftermath will cost substantially more than $10B, and that’s before accounting…”
Brendan: brilliant work, as usual. Worthy of all your Yesterdays. / Happy 31st, young Padawan.
P.S.: yo, AML Trojan! Glad to hear it’s not Too bad in your area. There’s more than enough suffering elsewhere. / Plus, we don’t want to see the Northern VA turnout depressed next Tuesday, now do we?