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Gaza Defeat Threatens Hamas and Iranian Regime

August 21st, 2014 - 1:46 pm

Why can’t Hamas abide by the ceasefire?  Because of the possible consequences of defeat for themselves, the Qataris and the Iranians.

Everybody in the Middle East sees that Hamas lost the latest round in the Gaza War.  Its rockets were nullified, its tunnels are largely destroyed, and its top leaders lived shamelessly in luxury hotels far away from the battlefield.  It was not only a defeat, but a humiliation, and Hamas now faces challenges to its rule.  Sharing power with Fatah is unacceptable — a defeated Hamas would be the junior partner, especially after the revelation that Hamas was organizing the assassinations of Fatah leaders — and turning Gaza over to Fatah would likely doom Hamas.

In contrast to its previous armed conflicts with Israel, this time Hamas’ support from the Arab world was quite limited.  Important Arab governments, such as Egypt’s, were openly rooting for, and even working in tandem with, Israel.  Indeed, two of Hamas’ most boisterous and bloodthirsty foreign supporters were not Arab at all, but the Persian regime in Tehran and the Turkish regime in Ankara.  This cannot fail to have an impact on the Sunni Arab citizens of Gaza.  They know the majority of their brethren have turned against Hamas, and that their fighters are supported in large part by non-Arab Shi’ites.

Proof?  The Israelis’ successful operations against top Hamas military commanders and a colleague in Islamic Jihad bespeak good human intelligence.  They were betrayed by fellow Gazans, who delivered them to the Israelis.  Hamas knows this and have already executed three of their own for collaborating with the enemy.  Just as victory in battle attracts new recruits, as we see with ISIS, defeat discourages support and encourages defections and betrayals.

Iran — a source of weapons, money, intelligence and training — may well have similar problems.  Iranian leaders have been quite outspoken in support of Hamas.  Ergo, the defeat and humiliation of Hamas will also be seen as a defeat and humiliation of the Islamic Republic, both regionally and domestically.  President Rouhani has just suffered a notable Parliamentary defeat at the hands of the hard-line faction, which impeached his minister of science and technology.  The former minister, Reza Faraji-Dana, is one of the most respected reformers, very popular among university students, very well educated, and not particularly controversial.  His purge must be seen as a blow aimed at Rouhani’s government.

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All Comments   (16)
All Comments   (16)
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As always, the terrorists win by not losing. Yes Hamas lost on the battlefield. No they were not defeated. As long as they are in command in Gaza, and still firing rockets and mortars, they have not been defeated.

Very interesting article by Amotz Asa-El on jpost.com about how Israel can and should defeat Hamas with a continuing war of attrition. Isreal holds all the cards and can continue to attack Hamas in a slow war of attrition.
12 weeks ago
12 weeks ago Link To Comment
hamas is no different than isis or hezbullah or islamic jihad. Israel will defeat hamas they will end up in the cornfield. even though that makes obama mad as hell and he's just not going to take it anymore.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL THE ROCKETS STOP
The Hamas leadership, under the main hospital in downtown Gaza City, has to be uprooted and destroyed. Much easier said than done.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Israel is in a unique position to crush Hamas and change the relationship with the Palestinian Authority in Judea and Samaria. The fact that so many Arab countries are in favor of this, may not be a factor in the future if Israel or rather Netanyahu fail to devastate the terrorist. It may be time for the 'Palestinians' to take over Jordan, with Israeli assistance, a create a 'Palestinian state'. This is were they truly belong. Now is the time to resolve this issue in the Middle East, while most of Israel's enemies are on fire.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Today, Hamas executed 18 Palestinians were accused of collaborating with Israel, this serves as a warning message to Palestinians in order to terrorize and intimidate them. this means that "any Palestinian opposes Hamas rule, accuses of being a spy for Israel then will be executed!" They want the Palestinians to live under the terror version of the Islamic state. In fact, Hamas and its monetary backers have brought nothing to Palestinians except the destruction and ruination, backwardness, ignorance and religious extremism. the money WENT TO support terrorism, for missiles, explosives and tunnels NOT to the reconstruction and development for a better future and life.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
i like the protestant ( at least i think it is protestant ) saying, God helps those who help themselves
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
What on earth? What has happened in the 24 hours since this article went online, this:

The war is ongoing, a four year old Israeli boy was killed by mortar fire from Gaza, a synagogue was hit, a Hamas rocket landed meters from a kindergarten, all in the last 24 hours, less than that. That is in the time since Ledeen published this article here. So what is Ledeen smoking?

And I heard the sirens here in TA a mere 4 hours ago.

Hamas is attacking for among other reasons, the fact that Obama has their back, which can only boost their morale even as they have lost their high-ranking terrorist leadership in the last 24 hours (yay!), even as Hamas is panicked and killing 'collaborators' with Israel.

Hamas has the support of the West's media, the White House, the EU, the universities and MOST of the public in the West - all this and more is what keeps them going. Oh yeah they are smuggling arms and other supplies through tunnels from the Sinai, hundreds of them. As long as we don't conquer Gaza, Hamas will remain intact and will continue to fire rockets that they will continue to build, and continue to smuggle through from Sinai.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Michael's article is very interesting, as is your reply. Have the Gazans finally had enough of Hamas? It's not hard to imagine them being fed up. As I understand it, they mostly voted for Hamas in the first place because Fatah was viewed as hopelessly corrupt. If Hamas has now been discredited, as the current war would certainly justify, is it possible that BOTH major groups of terrorists are now fully discredited? If so, is there some kind of moderate group that may be able to operate now, someone that may even be able to negotiate a permanent peace? Or will we just get another bunch of terrorists that want to destroy Israel?

If Hamas is just wounded but still very much in control, I'm at a loss as to what can be done to resolve this problem.

It seems to me that if you relocate the people of Gaza to the West Bank, they'll just start the whole thing over again there. Ditto if you push them into Egypt. Or would Fatah destroy Hamas if its members showed up there? Assuming Egypt even wanted the Gazans, what would THEY do with Hamas? It seems to me that a great deal of Egyptian public opinion is still anti-Israel, even if al-Sisi is in favor of peace with Israel.

It seems to me, you have to either imprison all the Hamas fighters or kill them, either of which is likely to be a major challenge unless their own people give them up. Exiling them to somewhere else is just going to give them time to rebuild and try the same crap all over again from their new location. Ditto for leaving them where they are.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Terrorists should be killed and exterminated, not captured!
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
more and more people are figuring it out. and the rest are your enemies, only they're feeling easier about being identified as such. not such a bad development actually.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
I wish you were right. But it's just the ritual cycle culling of the herd. The last time a war was won from the air was WW2, over Japan, and that was after three years of island hopping and two mainland cities nuked to stop the ritual beheadings. I don't see any indication of the West much less the rest getting serious over the BS.
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
"Just as victory in battle attracts new recruits, as we see with ISIS, defeat discourages support and encourages defections and betrayals."

Wait a minute! You mean to tell me that it's better to actually go out and fight and kill these guys?? You mean we can't just give them billions of dollars in free stuff to make them love us?? Shocking, I tells ya!! Who knew?
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
But the liberals always insist that fighting the jihadis just causes MORE volunteers to come out to help them.

I think the "reasoning" goes something like:
- if they are opposed to us, they must be morally right;
- if we kill them, we must be morally wrong because they are right;
- if a good person becomes aware of this fight, he must fight with the underdog to help achieve "justice" against the oppressors (us again).

13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
Interesting article (but of course). Huniliate the leadership and the base abandons.
It dovetails nicely with VD Hanson's recent article on the IDF humiliation of Hamas.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/385698/sherman-gaza-victor-davis-hanson
13 weeks ago
13 weeks ago Link To Comment
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