I voted for Donald Trump twice. I published several op-ed pieces defending him and his policies. I spoke in support of Trump on podcasts and before live audiences. I do not regret those decisions, and I remain convinced that, given the alternatives (Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden), supporting Trump in 2016 and 2020 was the right choice.
What Trump Did Right
I also think that Trump accomplished a remarkable number of good things for America. He placed three outstanding justices on the Supreme Court. He slashed taxes and canceled thousands of government-imposed regulations, and these two actions spurred vigorous economic growth while bringing inflation down to just over 2% per year. He reduced the flow of illegal immigrants from 297,898 to 143,099 per year. (By way of comparison, under Biden, the numbers are 2.76 million for 2022 and 3.2 million so far for 2023.) Trump built over 200 miles of effective border walls and would have built many more miles if construction had not been blocked repeatedly by liberal judges and by a Democratic Congress that refused to appropriate money for a wall.
In addition, President Trump negotiated the Abraham Accords, which established normal diplomatic relationships between Israel and four neighboring Arab countries and gave hope for continuing peace in the Middle East. And he moved the U.S. embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. I also note that Russia did not invade Ukraine, and Hamas did not invade Israel while Trump was president – they were afraid of how he might respond.
With regard to energy policy, Trump approved the Keystone Pipeline, the Dakota Access Pipeline, and oil production from the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, a region that could produce up to 20 percent of our petroleum needs. His administration also granted significantly more permits for mining of oil, gas, and coal from federal lands. The result was lower energy prices, a benefit to everyone. (The average price of gas in the United States was $2.42 per gallon in January 2021, Trump’s last month in office, compared to $3.74 today – a 54% increase under Biden.) At the end of Trump’s term, the U.S. was energy-independent and on its way to becoming the world’s leading exporter rather than a net energy importer.
And the list goes on. Trump built a stronger U.S. military, expanded educational freedom, defended freedom of conscience for artistic professionals, defeated ISIS, persuaded several European nations to increase their NATO funding, protected freedom of speech on college campuses, and instructed the Department of Education to protect boys’ and girls’ bathrooms, locker rooms, and sports teams.
Speaking as a professor who has taught theology and ethics for 46 years, I can say that all of these actions seem to me to be consistent with a Judeo-Christian worldview as found in the Bible as a whole. And, as an evangelical Christian, I appreciate that Trump welcomed several evangelicals into cabinet posts and other positions of high influence in his administration. (Biden has none in his cabinet so far as I know.)
Democrats Oppose Trump’s Accomplishments
But President Biden has steadily rolled back many of these achievements, and if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2024, more and more will be nullified. Democrats will appoint liberal justices to the Supreme Court and lower courts; they will continually increase taxes; they will fuel inflation with runaway government spending, which will drive our nation ever further into debt. They will place nearly impossible requirements on the use of coal, oil, and natural gas, thereby giving us ever more expensive and less reliable energy. They will keep our borders open because they hope millions of illegal immigrants will eventually become millions of additional Democrat voters. They will also increase their attacks on religious freedom and freedom of conscience. They will continue to weaken our military through relentless cuts to military budgets. If we have to endure another four years of a Democratic president, nearly all of Trump’s legacy will be lost.
Why Trump should drop out now
Why, then, should Trump drop out of the current presidential race? Because he is a weaker candidate than in 2016. In fact, Republican pollster Frank Luntz recently called Trump the “weakest” Republican candidate for the general election. While Trump remains popular among conservative Republicans (and thus he could win the GOP nomination), his support among independent voters is abysmal, and independents will decide the general election.
The latest Gallup poll showed a remarkable decline in party loyalty for both parties. Twenty-eight percent of Americans now consider themselves Republicans, 24% now consider themselves Democrats, and a whopping 46% say they are “Independents.” A candidate will have to win a majority of Independents in order to win the election. And that is where Trump comes up short.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of over 3,600 registered voters in six battleground states in October 2023 found that 57% of respondents had an unfavorable view of President Biden, a highly unpopular president (41% were favorable). But 56%, almost an identical number, had an unfavorable view of Trump (42% were favorable). Voters don’t like either of these candidates. And among voters who are “undecided and persuadable,” only 20% think it would be good for the country if Trump became president again. And 54% believe that Trump has committed serious federal crimes. If those numbers are anywhere near the actual situation, it will be impossible for Trump to win the general election.
Therefore, if Trump collects a majority of delegates in the early Republican primaries and thereby secures the GOP nomination, Republicans would be facing a huge risk that Democrats will find some way to dump Biden and then quickly select a fresh, younger candidate (like California governor Gavin Newsom) and win the general election in a landslide.
Seven negative factors that diminish Trump’s support
Here are seven factors that have driven away large numbers of independent voters since the 2020 election
Refusing to admit that he lost the 2020 election. I realize that many Trump supporters will object, “But the Democrats cheated!” Okay, I have read enough reports about people inserting fraudulent ballots into the voting process that I will agree that some Democrats in some precincts somehow produced a dishonestly high vote count for Joe Biden. But there are more than 174,000 voting precincts in the United States, and there is now no way to know how many illegitimate votes Biden accumulated. There is also no way to prove that Democrats in any single state fabricated anywhere near enough votes to swing that state’s electoral votes to Biden instead of Trump.
After the 2020 election, Republican lawyers filed more than 60 lawsuits attempting to prove that the electoral votes in some states where Biden won by a narrow margin should instead be awarded to Trump. But in every case, judges ruled that the Republican lawyers had not produced enough evidence even to bring the case to trial, which means there was nowhere near enough evidence to overturn the election in any single state.
The overall popular vote was Biden 81,268,773 and Trump 74,216,728. Biden won the popular vote by over 7 million. Biden had 51.3% of the popular vote, and Trump had 46.8%. So, in terms of the popular vote, the election was not even close. Are we to believe that Democrats cast 7,000,000 illegitimate votes without getting caught? (Yes, I realize that electoral votes decide the presidency, not the overall popular vote, but the popular vote is still a general perspective on the mood of the nation. In fact, Biden won 57% of the electoral votes, with 306 against 232 for Trump.)
Many faithful Trump supporters will still believe that the election was “stolen” and they are entitled to their own beliefs. But I’m concerned that endlessly repeating this claim quickly turns off many independent voters. What they see is a sore loser who refused even to attend President Biden’s inauguration, a long tradition that has served as a model for the rest of the world of the peaceful transfer of power within the world’s most powerful nation.
Recklessly refusing to call off the protesters when the demonstration turned violent on January 6: A strong rebuke from Trump in public and on Twitter, warning the protesters against forcefully entering the Capitol, would have avoided the horrible spectacle of American citizens joining an unruly mob that was trying to stop Congress from functioning according to the law and certifying the results of the election.
Here is the relevant timeline:
- 12:53 p.m.—Some protesters pushed aside fencing and overwhelmed police in one section of the capital perimeter.
- 12:57 p.m.—Another barricade was breached by a large group.
- 1:03 p.m.—Other protesters overran three layers of barricades and forced some Capitol Police to retreat to the Capitol steps.
- 1:50 p.m.—D.C. Metropolitan Police Cmdr. Robert Glover declared a riot.
- 2:12 p.m.—The first protesters entered the Capitol building.
Trump should have called off what was becoming an unruly mob at 12:53 p.m., but it was not until 2:38 PM that Trump finally tweeted, "Please support our Capitol Police and Law Enforcement. They are truly on the side of our Country. Stay peaceful!” Even then, he did not ask them to leave the building.
Trump was at that time still president of the United States (Biden’s inauguration was not until January 20), and the center of American government was under attack by an unruly mob, the Capitol Police were being overwhelmed, and the president of the United States, who could have stopped it, did nothing for more than 1 ½ hours. Many independents will ask, shall we elect this man president again?
Losing Republican control of the U.S. Senate by making rash endorsements of weak Republican candidates in several states: Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all had incumbent Democrat senators who could have been soundly defeated by a reasonably competent Republican candidate in 2022, but Trump foolishly endorsed Blake Masters in Arizona (who had never held any elective office), Herschel Walker in Georgia (whose credibility was repeatedly challenged), and political newcomer Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. All three states had stronger candidates who would have won the election and would have given Republicans a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but Trump failed to endorse the strong candidates, choosing instead people who agreed with his claim that the election was stolen. This is another reason why there would not be much enthusiasm for Trump's candidacy among conservative-leaning independents (and also among many lifelong Republicans).
Legal problems: The multiple active lawsuits against President Trump (91 felony counts) constitute a huge risk because they could essentially keep him from actively campaigning during the entire election season of 2024. In addition, the legal discovery process holds the potential of some insiders anonymously leaking a drip-drip-drip of embarrassing and damaging new information about Trump after he wins the Republican nomination and it is too late for Republicans to replace him with a non-scandal-plagued candidate. The Democrats could win in a landslide.
Or what if Trump wins the nomination and then is convicted of a felony before the November general election? Fiercely loyal Republicans would still back him, but for a large number of moderate voters, this would be the final straw, and they would not vote for Trump.
My own view (others may differ) is that the legal charges against Trump do not stem from impartial attempts to pursue equal justice under the law but instead stem from the horrible misuse of prosecutorial authority by Trump-haters who first selected their victim (Donald Trump) and then searched high and low for some crime they could charge him with committing. I think that the charges against Trump are a pernicious misuse of the courts as weapons against political opponents. But the trials will go on, and they must be taken into account.
Already, 49% of Americans believe Trump has done something illegal, and an additional 26% believe he has done something unethical but not illegal (according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll). That makes 55% of voters who have a reason (in their own minds) to vote against Trump because of his legal problems alone.
Age: Trump was born on June 14, 1946, which makes him 77 years old. When compared to President Biden, who at age 81 is obviously frail and out of touch, Trump seems healthy and strong. But compared to other possible Democrat candidates such as Gavin Newsom (age 56), Michelle Obama (age 59), or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (age 50), Trump’s age becomes a significant risk factor. Trump is now eight years older than when he began his successful campaign in 2015, and at age 77, there is always the risk of an unexpected health problem in the middle of a demanding campaign.
Concerns about Trump’s character: Especially among voters with a strong religious commitment (such as hundreds of my friends who are evangelical Christians), there remains a cloud of concern about Trump’s deepest moral convictions, especially about relationships with women (people remember the Access Hollywood tapes), and also about insufficient care for factual accuracy in what he says, and about his practice of insulting former political allies who now disagree with him. This concern about character cost Trump many thousands and perhaps millions of votes in 2016 and 2020.
Trump fatigue: Here I speak personally as a lifelong Republican, one who will support any Republican candidate because the policies supported by Republicans are more consistent with the overall teachings of the Bible regarding governments and laws than the policies of the Democrats, in my opinion.
Quite honestly, the thought of having to defend Trump again and again for another year produces in me a great feeling of weariness. Judging from numerous personal conversations, I think millions of other Republicans feel the same way. We would vote for Trump, but the needed enthusiasm and willingness to spend volunteer hours and to contribute money are simply not there.
But what about recent polls?
What about the polls that show Trump ahead of Biden? To me, they mean nothing because I don’t believe for a minute that the leadership of the Democrat Party will allow such an unpopular president as Biden to be their 2024 presidential candidate. I think the Democratic leaders are wrong about many policy convictions, but I don’t think they are politically stupid. They are politically shrewd, and their eventual candidate will be much younger and much more popular.
The mainstream liberal press continues to run stories about Trump’s huge lead among Republican voters and about polls showing that Trump could beat Biden, but I think that is because they recognize Trump’s weakness among the general public. Therefore they want Trump as the Republican candidate, knowing he would lose the general election. They will mostly hold off on running negative stories about Trump until after he wins the GOP nomination, and then the avalanche will start.
No successful sports team continues to talk about how they can beat their weakest rival, but that is similar to what Republicans are doing if they continue to emphasize Trump’s lead over Biden in recent polls. It means nothing against stronger Democrat opponents.
Will the election be about Trump or about issues and policies?
If Donald Trump becomes the Republican candidate, the election will focus more on Trump than on the policies of the two parties. We will have endless media coverage of Trump’s trial, Trump’s lawyers, Trump’s friends and enemies, Trump’s health, Trump’s conduct on January 6–and endless media delight in asking speculative questions such as: Could Trump actually go to jail? How could the Secret Service protect Trump in jail? How could Trump meet foreign leaders in his jail cell? Could Trump pardon himself? and so forth. Because he is such a forceful personality, and because he is so controversial, and because any story about him attracts viewers and readers, all of the 2024 election season will be Trump, Trump, Trump stories all year long. Is this really what we want as a nation?
But if Trump drops out and another Republican is nominated, the election will be much more about big issues facing the nation. The election will focus on inflation, taxes, securing the border, crime, support for police, school choice, Israel, Ukraine, our military preparedness, race relations, abortion, climate change, the role of judges, the Supreme Court, the national debt, etc.
And if the campaign is about issues, Republicans will likely win the presidency because the mood of the nation has shifted to much stronger support for Republican policies (for example, smaller government, lower taxes, a secure border, a stronger military, more availability of school choice, judges who interpret but do not create laws, etc.) than for the policies of the Democrats.
Trump’s legacy: Plan A or Plan B?
Donald Trump now faces a difficult choice.
Plan A is that Trump stays in the race and wins the Republican nomination but loses the general election. His legacy then will be that he made a good start in 2017-2021, but after that, he and the candidates he supported led the Republicans to defeat in 2020, 2022, and 2024, and all his reforms were lost.
Plan B is that Trump drops out of the race and a younger Republican wins the nomination and the general election. This new president will support policies similar to those that President Trump so effectively advocated. Therefore, Trump’s legacy will be secured. He will be remembered as a remarkable change agent who began to free us from the domination of a federal government that had become far too big and far too powerful.
If Trump follows Plan B, he will still be remembered as a president who brought millions of working-class Americans into the Republican fold, including millions of black and Hispanic voters. He will also be remembered as a president who rebuilt our military, restored the dominance of originalism in our courts, cut taxes, strengthened the economy, showed us how to effectively secure the border, brought new hope for genuine peace in the Middle East, made us the dominant source of world energy, deterred aggression by Rusia and China, defeated ISIS, and did many other good things.
And if he drops out now, Trump will also be remembered as the ex-president who, with commendable humility, put the good of the country ahead of his own personal ambition and withdrew from the race so that a more electable Republican could become president and could spend the next eight years solidifying the policies that Trump began in 2017-2021.
Yes, dropping out would require a dose of humility, a quality not common among politicians. But humility is frequently recommended in the Bible: “God opposes the proud but gives grace to the humble” (James 4:6; also 1 Peter 5:5).
A pardon for Trump
Finally, I hope that the new Republican president on January 20, 2025, will issue a wide-ranging pardon to Trump, thus rebuking the Democrats’ shameful attempts to use the Department of Justice as a political weapon to persecute members of the other party. This is a practice followed in corrupt third-world nations, but it is a practice unworthy of this great nation, and no honorable president or political party should tolerate its existence in the United States of America.
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