Everything about Operation Rising Lion moves so quickly that it seems impossible that Israel's multi-domain assault on Iran's military, political, terrorist, nuclear, and repression infrastructure is barely five days old.
Yet Iran's most important nuclear weapons asset — the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) — remains. Buried perhaps 200 feet underground near the ancient city of Qom, the super-modern facility is probably the most hardened target in the whole of Iran. Israel lacks both the bunker-buster munitions necessary to destroy FFEP from the air and the heavy bombers needed to deliver them.
Hold that thought; we'll come back to it. First, I'd like to give you a brief overview of what Israel has accomplished in the last four-plus days:
- Eliminated the senior leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, using compromised comms to lure them into a high-level meeting — and then bombing the meeting-place.
- Established air superiority through air-launched missile attacks and drones smuggled into Iran and operating by sleeper cells.
- Severely hampered Iran's command and control systems.
- Reduced Iran's ballistic missile force by 15% in the opening hours of Rising Lion.
- Killed at least 14 of Iran's top nuclear scientists.
- Eliminated by now an estimated 40% of Iran's ballistic missile launch infrastructure.
- Destroyed several key nuclear facilities.
- Leveled key military headquarters.
- Taken out facilities used to repress and torture Iranian civilians.
- Shut down Iran's propaganda TV network — during a live broadcast!
And more — in under five days — accomplished through a multi-domain effort ranging from near-constant air raids to cyber attacks to targeted assassination on the ground. Iran has very little ability to resist, aside from a shrinking ability to launch ballistic missile attacks on Israel — that are materially ineffective, anyway.
Last year, Iran could launch hundreds of missiles and drones at a time. The most recent attack was maybe a couple dozen. Sad!
Most interesting to me — at least, if we get useful data out of it — is what Israeli white-hat hacker group Predatory Sparrow revealed today about their attack on Iran's Bank Sepah, long a front for IRGC, the country's top military-terrorist organization.
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The group claims to have "destroyed all data" at Sepah, and there are reports of "widespread banking disruptions in Iran," according to Iran Intl.
Predatory Sparrow, or Gonjeshke Darande, is taking credit for cyberattacks on Iranian banks. Despite appearances this actor is not all bluster. pic.twitter.com/cSxi9Pi0ZS
— John Hultquist (@JohnHultquist) June 17, 2025
In other words, Predatory Sparrow doesn't just troll Tehran — they deliver.
If Predatory Sparrow managed to copy IRGC's financials before shutting down the bank, I say give those files to Data Republican (small-r) and let her work her magic. The whole world should see who's been taking Iran's terror dollars.
And Another Thing: Maybe after the dust settles, Predatory Sparrow could take a peek into certain Qatari banks? Just putting that out there for those guys — not that they need the help.
Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei seems to still be holed up in his bunker outside of Tehran — and none-too-happy about his government's… ah… rapid personnel changes.
Channel 12 in Israel is reporting that Khamenei is in a "difficult mental state" because everyone he worked with is dead and he's having a "hard time with the replacements."
— Mark Dubowitz (@mdubowitz) June 16, 2025
Today's big news on that front is "the killing of Major General Ali Shadmani, Iran’s newly appointed chief of staff. He was named to the role just two days ago after his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike on Tehran."
Newly minted Iranian chiefs of staff now have an expected shelf life of 48 hours. Mayflies last longer.
But FFEP remains. My preference is that Israel destroy the facility itself, by whatever means it takes. But if President Trump wants to order a bunker-busting B-52 or B-2 raid on Fordow — an attack we've had legal justification for since 1979 — I wouldn't mind one bit.
That's because so long as FFEP exists, the Khamenei regime has a strategic card to play to try and guarantee its continued existence. I don't know how a regime survives the damage Israel has wrought, but the mullahs have proven crafty, time and again.
So long as Fordow stands, the mullahs can bluff and bargain from a position of latent strength. If you want lasting peace, that card must be taken off the table.
The path to peace runs through the destruction of Fordow.
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