I Don't Want to Jinx Anything but Trump's Looking Good in Pennsylvania

Before I share this afternoon's potentially blockbuster numbers, I want you to write it 100 times on the blackboard: "I will not get cocky." Also please note that text formatting for our THM mobile app and notifications is the only reason I didn't put "potentially" in italics, boldface, and all caps. Because all of the things you're about to read are only POTENTIAL indicators of a Donald Trump win in Pennsylvania.

With the usual cautions out of the way, let's look at what's going on in the Keystone State.

Early turnout is excellent for the GOP:

Absentee "turnout" is even with about 84% of requested ballots returned by both parties.

You might wonder why 32.8% GOP to the Dem's 55.7% is such good news. It's all about the intensity and about who tends to vote early.

Look at this:

Scott Presler has led a huge GOP voter registration drive in Pennsylvania, and he outdid the Dems by far. Those new GOP voters are also more likely to be early GOP voters. Traditional Republicans generally prefer to turn out on election day. 

What's more interesting is where those 721,276 missing Democrat early voters went — and who they are.

According to a confidential memo to the Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team from the RNC's chief data consultant obtained by Eric Daugherty, Pennsylvania's "urban turnout is down 381K votes, female turnout is down 450K votes."

Those are the women and minority voters that a Democrat can't win without and, for whatever reason, 721,276 of them haven't bothered to vote early for Harris as they did for Biden in 2020.

The same memo shows that things look much the same in other tossup states:

Arizona:

• Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020

Georgia:

• Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020

Michigan:

• Urban turnout is down -321,523 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020

North Carolina:

• Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020

Nevada:

• Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020

Wisconsin:

• Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020
• Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020

So the encouraging news is that in early voting where Democrats did so well in 2020, they're having problems with two core constituencies. The giant caveat is that the Dem machine does a great job of turnout when it needs it and an even better job (mostly in Philly) of "finding" just enough ballots for the big win.

That's why Harris is pushing hard to get the abortion women out to vote tomorrow and why the GOP still needs every single election-day voter it can push, pull, or drive to the polls.

Recommended: Wargaming the Electoral College: 'I Wanna Be Sedated' Edition