Wargaming the Electoral College: Prepare to Be Shocked

Welcome to the "Would You Like Fries with That?" edition of Wargaming the Electoral College, your semi-occasional glimpse into the what-ifs and prognostications of the 2024 presidential election.

For what it's worth, I first started doing these — using photocopied U.S. maps and blue and red magic markers — during my sophomore year at Mizzou during the 1988 election. Which is my way of admitting I was not a well young man.

That election was a gimme, with George H.W. Bush successfully running for Ronald Reagan's third term, and what a shame he didn't deliver. So I called all 50 states correctly but since then have been pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised every four years.

Let's look at some potential Nov. 5 surprises.

I've colored North Carolina comfortably Red since the beginning of this campaign's Wargaming columns, but Harris is showing resilience there. The big unknown is what effect Hurricane Helene will have on residents of the western part of the state's ability to vote.

Another big what-if is Nevada. Joe Biden — remember him? he doesn't — didn't seem at all able to hold on to that state, but Harris is much stronger there than Slow Joe. Even Polymarket bettors who currently have Trump at over 62% odds of winning, in part by taking Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, peg Nevada as a toss-up.

The Polymarket map looks like this today:

They also have Trump's odds up another 2.6 points today and Harris down 2.5. Bettors must have seriously liked that McDonald's stunt.

Trump appears to be surging in Pennsylvania, and his Sunday McDonald's event even has Piers Morgan arguing that "If Donald Trump wins the election in 15 days, as I believe he will, it may well be this stunt that won it for him."

Trump winning the Keystone State would be most unpleasant for Harris, but would it really be a surprise? The polling averages at RealClearPolitics have put Pennsylvania in the Trump column for some time now, so maybe the only question is whether Trump can get past the margin of cheating in Philly.

Minnesota is within Trump's grasp. I don't think he can quite close the deal there but it is a possibility.

Dirty tricks in Georgia might be enough to put it in the Harris column.

So if we play out all the possible surprises but leave Pennsylvania as our sole tossup state, you gain a deep understanding of why Team Harris and its media sycophants have been panicking over a little fast food franchise in suburban Philadelphia.

Extreme outside chance: New Mexico goes for Trump, sealing the deal without winning Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, or Nevada.

Please just remember that this is a highly unlikely scenario, with every toss-up state breaking in the less likely direction.

If it's worth anything at all, RCP's No Toss-Up map looks like this:

I'm not sure what poll averaging is worth. Maybe it manages to smooth out the rough edges and arrive at something close to the truth. Or maybe nothing can account for human foibles and unknown-unknowns like how broad and effective the cheating will be this time around.

Finally, if you'll let me go way out on the deep end, before the Democrats' intra-party coup swapped out Biden for Harris there were small indications that Virginia and New Hampshire might be in play. I'm discounting that talk because neither campaign is acting as though it might be true.

But do keep a close eye on those two states on election night. The numbers there, no matter who wins each state, might prove to be a bellwether.