It seems like only last year [it was only last year, Steve —Editor] that we were all going to die because the oceans were literally figuratively boiling away. I'm not sure whether it was the massive amounts of steam that were supposed to kill us or the resulting Sharknado. I just know that whatever the oceans are doing, it's a VERY BAD THING, even though the Great Barrier Reef seems to love it. Seriously, the GBR is in better shape than it's been in for years.
But now, "surface ocean temperatures are plunging rapidly around the world with scientists reported to be puzzled at the speed of the recent decline, according to Chris Morrison at The Daily Sceptic this week. "Less puzzlement was to be found when the oceans were ‘boiling’ during the last two years," Morrison dryly noted.
When things are getting worse, climate scientists enjoy the certainty of knowing exactly what's going on and why. When the trend lines improve, it's a much less newsworthy mystery.
"Until recently, the surface sea temperature (SST) graph below showing measurements up the Arctic and down to Antarctica was rarely out of the public prints... This year the temperature shown by the black line flatlined until April compared with the substantial rise in orange for 2023. It then fell more sharply than last year and is now 0.2°C lower."
You can play with the interactive chart here if you like.
For whatever reason, ocean temps are up a full degree Celsius or so since the mid-'80s but 2024 is showing cooling like we've never seen before. Then again, if our data only goes back to the mid-'80s, how much do we really know about oceans that are billions of years old, and surround continents that slowly drift around?
As I wrote way back in 2014, before we start panicking, a few questions need to be answered in this order:
- Is whatever is going on detrimental or beneficial to the human habitat?
- Do we understand the how and the why?
- Do we have the technical means and know-how to make things better instead of worse?
We're still iffy on big parts of the first question, but we have a lot of people in Washington and other places telling us that we need to tax and regulate as though we have perfect answers to all three.
Let's go back to the Great Barrier Reef for a moment. In 2016 the GBR was pronounced dead at the ripe old age of 25 million, but by 2022 parts of it showed the highest coral cover in 36 years. Last year the panicmongers had to admit that "the truth is complex." This would be a great time for climate scientists to admit that on the Rumsfeld Epistemological Scale when it comes to how our planet works, we still have a great many unknown unknowns. But don't hold your breath.
The only certain thing for sure, as Lyle Lovett once sang, is that whatever is going on, it's the worst thing ever and it's because of something you did, comrade.
You can also be sure that the freezing oceans will be what kills us next.
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