It's Day Five of my Biden Campaign Collapse Tracker and I'm here to tell you that the Aswan Dam couldn't hold back all the denial that various Democrats have for you today. It's an ugly thing to see and, if you're at all concerned about the fate of our Republic, also glorious.
So, like the president, let's dig in.
When Democrat fundraiser and organizer Dmitri Mehlhorn said that a "dead Biden was better than a live Kamala," he wasn't indulging in denial — he was neatly summarizing the electoral reality of Presidentish Joe Biden's first (and arguably worst) DEI appointment.
After that, though, is where things go off the rails.
When interviewer Ryan Grim pointed out that Biden doesn't believe his bad poll numbers, Mehlhorn agreed. "I actually think he's right, and you're all wrong… actually, everybody's wrong and Joe is right. The polls are tied, they're still within the margin of error. That's what matters at this stage."
If this were an episode of "Arrested Development," this is where the narrator would chime in with "The polls were not all within the margin of error."
"Shouldn't Trump's odds of winning be higher than two-to-one if you're so right?" Mehlhorn asked.
I wonder what Mehlhorn would say if you could penetrate his denial shields long enough to explain that those are currently Trump's worst odds of winning.
Previously: Biden Campaign Collapse Tracker: The Senate Knives Come Out for Caesar
At 54-27, PredictIt bettors prefer Trump by that dismissable two-to-one margin, and from there, things get nothing but worse for Biden. BetOnline has Trump at 2.5-to-one. Bovada is just under three-to-one, Polymarket is at precisely three-to-one, and Betfair bettors give Trump a massive four-to-one advantage.
Even poor Nate Silver, who I can practically hear crying into his coffee this morning, puts Biden's odds at just one in 2.5.
This is what happens when the White House spends three-plus years working their booties off to keep Biden's age issues in the Plausible Deniability Zone:
The White House has limited Biden’s daily itinerary and shielded him from impromptu exchanges. Advisers have restricted news conferences and media appearances, twice declining Super Bowl halftime interviews—an easy way to reach millions of voters—and sought to make sure meetings with donors stuck to scripted pleasantries.
"Senior aides dismissed travel suggestions over worries the president didn’t have the stamina for them," the Wall Street Journal report continued, and "All of this unfolded as Biden’s slips became increasingly obvious, and his top advisers were assuring everyone the president was fine."
NARRATOR: This is too absurd to be an episode of "Arrested Development."
Previously: Biden Campaign Collapse Tracker: 'It's Just My Brain'
Let me finish with a pair of clips, courtesy of Collin Rugg.
JUST IN: Both Karine Jean-Pierre and John Kirby refer to President Biden’s upcoming press conference as a “Big Boy” press conference.
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 8, 2024
Remarkable.
KJP: “This week, President Biden will… hold a press conference, a Big Boy press conference.”
Kirby: “After that the president will… pic.twitter.com/gJf3k2cIgz
It's going to take days or longer to prepare The Most Powerful Man in the World™ for the kind of press conference other presidents regularly hold.
THIS IS FINE, says the President's closest advisors while everything around them burns.
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