Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive has failed, we’re told, with headlines like “U.S. Intel Insiders Admit To Russia’s ‘Victory,'” even if that one is from the reliably pro-Kremlin Hindustan Times quoting the reliably unreliable Seymour Hersh.
But even more sober takes — including this sharp one from PJ Media’s own Rick Moran — point to Russia’s “devilishly clever series of defensive trenches” that have led to a “failure of the operation — so far.”
A look at a map of the front lines, which appear to have barely budged since the counteroffensive began in June, lends credence to the naysayers. But if we step back and take in the bigger picture, things look less bad for Kyiv and worse for Moscow. Not that everything is going swimmingly, mind you.
So let’s look at the details beneath the screaming headlines, some of which are nothing short of spectacular.
ASIDE: This bears repeating so here I go again: Whether Russia takes all, some, or none of Ukraine isn’t our business. This isn’t our fight. But Putin broke the peace in Europe and, for that, his aggression needs to be punished with every tank, shell, and bullet we can send Ukraine’s way. People in this century seem to forget how Europe’s wars tend to go global (at least four times already, plus 45 years of Cold War) if not contained.
Partly there’s an expectations game that Kyiv has not managed well. Many observers expected that the Ukraine Army could repeat the rapid advances of 2022, which quickly kicked Russian forces out of Kharkiv and Kherson in short order.
But I warned back in April that the odds of Kyiv achieving similar results in 2023 were nil:
Both sides are so well dug in, and both sides have such deficiencies in either manpower (Ukraine) or combat power (Russia), that the chances of Ukraine successfully removing the Russians in another rapid counteroffensive are essentially nil.
Expressing his “cautionary thoughts” about the Ukraine War counteroffensive, an AFU officer warned last month that it’s time to “temper our expectations” about clearing Russian forces completely out of the country this year — or maybe ever.
At long last, someone in authority in Ukraine got around to dampening those unrealistically high expectations. As the Ukraine Army finally reached the third of Russia’s three “devilishly clever” defensive lines in the Zaporizhia region, UA Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky admitted to CNN that “Tokmak [in the direction of the vital city of Melitipol] is the minimum goal.” Tarnavsky believes that if his army can take Tokmak, it could lead to a breakthrough in Zaporizhia.
In June, Tokmak was about 20 miles behind Russian lines. Now it’s about half that.
Yes, the going is slow — but it was, at first, in Kherson and Kharkiv, too. Both of those “rapid” counteroffensives were preceded by weeks of constant pressure and the systematic destruction of Russian logistics until rapid advances could happen.
Kyiv has also been going after Russia’s air defense systems with spectacular results. Earlier this month, Ukraine was able to use a combination of drones and Anglo-French Storm Shadow cruise missiles to destroy a Russian Kilo-class attack sub (one of only six in the Black Sea) and a Russian amphibious assault ship. Complicating matters, both vessels were docked in a repair yard which is now also out of action for as many weeks or months as it takes to clear out the hulks of those two warships.
But perhaps the most spectacular result arising from Russia’s degraded air defenses was the airstrike Friday on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters.
Slowed down and zoomed-in footage of the Ukrainian Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCM slamming into (and through) the roof of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters. pic.twitter.com/c8mas1OzAg
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023
Confirmed killed were Black Sea Fleet commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov and 33 other officers. Another 105 are believed injured. That’s a huge blow, and it required weeks of preparation and split-second timing made possible by up-to-the-minute intelligence.
I should mention that both of those airstrikes hit Sevastopol in occupied Crimea — the naval fortress at the heart of Russia’s Black Sea gem. It’s generally considered to be one of the best-defended cities in the world.
Three other news items caught my eye.
Here’s the first: “Using innovative attacks, Ukraine has eroded Russia’s formidable naval advantage, and it is starting to reopen ports.” Those ports are Ukraine’s lifeline to much of the rest of the world, and the Russian Navy’s inability to keep them closed speaks volumes. Not bad for a country like Ukraine that doesn’t even have a real navy.
Here’s the second one: “Russia has temporarily banned the export of gasoline and diesel to all countries outside a group of four ex-Soviet states, with the aim of stabilising its domestic fuel market as supplies of diesel to the military surge.” If Russia is consuming fuel at this rate while on the defensive — which generally consumes less fuel than offensive operations — then there’s something wrong. Either Russian oil production has dropped off, Ukraine is hitting Russian logistics harder than is widely known, or Russia is saving up serious stores for a future offensive. What I do know is that the third possibility is the least likely, since Russia never had to halt fuel exports last year, when they were advancing on four different axes and not just defending on one.
Here’s the third report: Russia Makes Rare Admission About Harsh Reality of Ukraine War. “In a new admission of the stark situation at the front, [Russian State Duma Defense Committee chair Andrey Kartapolov] also said that it was not possible for personnel to be rotated out of the operational zone during their service.”
Even with its huge manpower advantage, Moscow can’t afford to rotate troops out for rest, recuperation, and resupply. Even in the gawdawful trench fighting of World War I, troops were regularly rotated out and allowed a break. Russian soldiers historically have a near-suicidal ability to hang on, no matter how abused they are — by their own government. But there’s still only so much even a Russian mobik can take.
What happens next is anyone’s guess, but it’s far too early to label anything a failure.
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