There are small signs of a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) now that the Russian winter offensive has petered out, but only small signs.
The Dupuy Institute’s Christopher Lawrence wrote Friday that “while the weather may be clear in early May, that does not mean that Ukraine will initiate a major offensive operation in May.” Still, there are some signs that Kyiv has made certain preparations to resume the attack.
ISW reported over the weekend that they’ve been able to substantiate Russian milblogger claims that AFU has established a small presence in the Russian-held Kherson Oblast (region) using geolocated video originally uploaded by Russian troops.
“Russian milbloggers,” according to ISW, “claimed on April 20 and 22 that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions in east bank Kherson Oblast for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties in the area—all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area.”
Earlier report, including from the Russian Ministry of Defense, indicated that Russian forces retreated to the east side of the Dnipro River last autumn in order to concentrate their forces in the Donbas. If AFU is establishing a presence on the Russian side, that could mean that Russian forces there are now quite thin, indeed.
Russia initially attacked Ukraine from four directions on February 24, 2021. The attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv were fully repulsed—Kyiv in the first weeks of the war in Kharkiv last summer. In the south, AFU has won back the half of the Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnipro River, but must make a difficult crossing to win back the half on the left bank. In the east, in the vital Donbas region, Russian forces continue to make tiny gains at great cost. One of those costs was surrendering so much of Kherson.
Is the Russian Army there stretched so thin that Kyiv could soon launch a counteroffensive to take back the rest of Kherson? We’ll see. The way I read the map, a bit further east in Zaporizhia is the only area Kyiv has any hope of taking back this year, as you’ll see.
Taking back the Donbas… both sides are so well dug in, and both sides have such deficiencies in either manpower (Ukraine) or combat power (Russia), that the chances of Ukraine successfully removing the Russians in another rapid counteroffensive are essentially nil.
Expressing his “cautionary thoughts” about the Ukraine War counteroffensive, an AFU officer warned last month that it’s time to “temper our expectations” about clearing Russian forces completely out of the country this year — or maybe ever.
An anonymous Twitter account, “Tatarigami_UA,” is a reserve officer whose information and analysis have gained him a solid reputation and a solid Twitter following, too.
“It’s important to recognize,” Tatarigami continued, “that the Russian forces are actively preparing for the upcoming counter-offensive, and we shouldn’t underestimate their capabilities.” That’s why he says politicians should avoid making “optimistic statements about how the war will end soon,” and instead “be prepared for a potentially prolonged conflict.”
“Even if Ukraine successfully clears the entire southern region [Kherson], it won’t necessarily resolve the ongoing issues with Donbas or Crimea. The fall of one area doesn’t guarantee the fall of the other.”
We need more of Tatarigami’s clear thinking — not just in Kyiv, but in Western capitals, too. The longer Vladimir Putin’s stupid war goes on, the more likely it is to spread from a regional conflict to a continental—or even a global—war. If AFU can’t win back Crimea and those parts of Donbas already held by Moscow (and both areas are largely Russian-speaking), then it’s time to get serious about wrangling both sides to the negotiating table.
Actually, as I’ve written here time and time again, it’s long past time. The U.S. State Department’s job is supposed to be peace, but you’d never know that from SecState Anthony Blinken’s total lack of seriousness when it comes to the Ukraine War. Or anything else that comes with his actual duties.
Tatarigami knows it. The government in Kyiv probably knows it, too, but might be too wrapped up in its own hype. Moscow surely knows, with the long-running and ruinous Bakhmut offensive to take one small city, and after three embarrassing reversals in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson.
Everybody knows that peace is better than more ruin and blood, so where are the peacemakers?
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