Wargaming the Electoral College

RCP Leaners RCP Leaners

We start this week with RealClearPolitics's leaners map. We have five big changes from last Friday, and one small one.

On the plus side for Trump, Indiana has moved out of the Tossup category and Minnesota and Pennsylvania have moved into it. That's 11 votes (IN) out of Clinton's reach for now, and 30 big Blue votes she risks losing. You'll get more on MN momentarily, as it figures for the first time into a Trump victory scenario.

On the plus side for Clinton, Georgia is a Tossup again, and incredibly so is Texas. Texas hasn't voted Democrat since 1976, so I'm taking that one with a shipping container of salt, just as I've been doing with those reports that Arizona is a tossup.

The one small change is that Maine's splittable district has gone from Red to White as the polls there have shifted Blue. That one small change however could make a big difference in a close race, as we've discussed here in previous editions.

The net result is that Clinton has dropped 10 from 262 to 252, and Trump has collapsed from 170 to 126 -- if you buy into those reports about Texas. If not, he's slipped a bit to 164.

So let's take a closer look at the battlegrounds.