Wargaming the Electoral College

Let's get ready to ruuuuuuummmmmmmmmmmble!

Most of the convention noise should have filtered out of the polls by now and it's still too soon for the polls to have registered the new noise. By that of course I mean Hillary Clinton's "unintentional" campaign appearance with the gay-hating, Taliban-loving father of the Pulse nightclub terrorist right behind her, and Donald Trump's allusion of "Second Amendment people" to potential assassins. And then there's Clinton's "shocking pay-for-play scheme," except that as Jane's Addiction warned us almost 30 years ago, when it comes to Hillary, nothing's shocking.

If you'll remember, our base map last time around was RCP's poll averaged result, with all Leaners removed -- just showing Trump and Clinton's Solids and Likelies. Five weeks later and there's only one small change to the base map: Trump seems to have nailed down Nebraska's stray EC vote, giving him all five of NE's semi-splittable votes.

RCP No Leaners

The bad news for Trump is that with 13 weeks to go, he still doesn't have a lock on the southern tier of red states. The bad news for Clinton is that she still doesn't have a lock on the northern tier of blue states. But when we look deeper, you'll see that the bad news is mostly Trump's.

Let's add RCP's Leaners in to see what I mean.