Count Every Vote
That's what RCP is doing, and it's not looking great for Professor Ditherton Wiggleroom.
There is a path to 218, but it's a narrow one -- and would require a firm hand from Wiggleroom, Pelosi, and probably Boehner. None of which seems very likely.
Wiggleroom's real problem is that wavering members have been getting plenty of outs. The obvious one is that none of the House leadership -- Democrat and Republican alike -- is cracking the whip to line up votes. Another is the military leadership's obvious lack of enthusiasm, if not outright embarrassment. Then there's the Professor himself, who's only commitment to his own cause (other than scowling and scolding) has been to cancel a fundraiser so that he could spend more quality time in Washington, scowling and scolding.
I've never seen anything quite like this, on an issue a President seems so committed to pushing through.
Fore more years.