The Silver State Ground Game

I don’t have numbers for you yet, but there’s potential good news out of Nevada, where “Dem turnout has been unspectacular.” That’s from Breitbart’s D.M. Hawkins, who also reminded me that Reid’s turnout/cheat machine does great work for Harry, but couldn’t turn the tables for his own son Rory — when they shared the same ballot two years ago.

NV is still a tough nut to crack, but maybe not as tough as I thought. Hawkins tweeted me back, “Right now 254K D’s have voted, 217K Rs, 106K I’s & gap narrowing daily. With a Indie win and crossover support.” I don’t know if the Ds are down from this time in 2008 or if the Rs and Is are up. Again, I just don’t have the numbers yet.

So I’m still painting NV blue. For now. I’ll turn on it like Sauron’s eye at the next sign of anything.

ALSO: If you aren’t following me on Twitter, what’s wrong with you? That’s where half my best material goes.

UPDATE: OK, I have some numbers courtesy of Johnny B. Battleground Watch has the current tallies.

Democrats have long been expected to win Clark County early voting by large margins. The story of early voting thus far has been unexpected reduced enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans resurgence off low 2008 totals and the rise of Indepedent/Other party support. The Wednesday early vote appeared to be Democrats last chance to bury the GOP in all-important Clark County and that didn’t happen.

Ahead of the vote, one hell of a source whispered in my ear: The locations Wednesday rotate into some bad areas for Republicans but some decent ones back on Thurs and Friday. If the GOP can hold the Obama campaign to a spread of between 5000-6000 tomorrow the GOP should look pretty good going into the final early voting days.

Well, yesterday’s margin was 4159, well below the expected blood-bath and below the “good” level locals were hoping for. So great job to Team Nevada and now get after it these last two days. Overall Democrats cast 13083 ballots only 88% the 2012 weekday average. Republicans cast 8924 ballots, 90% of the 2012 weekday average. And Independents/Other cast 6017 ballots, 105% of the 2012 weekday average. Thursday and Friday are expected to be the big turnout days in early voting although there may have been some early pull-forward of ballots this cycle.

We see the election over election change in Democrat turnout is barely above the 2008 turnout +7591 and dropping daily. The change in GOP turnout is UP +23,988, a net 16,386 gain for the GOP versus 2008.

Click on over to Battleground Watch for their tracking chart, too, which looks encouraging as all hell.

Rasmussen has Obama at 50, but that’s an older poll and still within the MOE.

Folks, I’m putting NV back into the Tossup column as of right now. We’ll do a full-scale Wargaming the Electoral College tomorrow, reflecting these early voting figures in CO, NV, and OH.

UPDATE: There’s no early voting in Oregon, where it’s 100% vote-by-mail. And there Hawkins reports that “the rate of return for Obama Oregon counties close to 30% lower than McCain/Romney counties.”

OR is an odd duck, so far to the left that disgruntled Obama voters might break for Jill Stein on the Green ticket in big numbers. I believe Nader did better there in 2000 than he did in almost any other state. So don’t read too much into that 30% figure. But it might just be indicative of Obama’s weakness across the nation, if not Romney’s strength.

Also read: Romney to Campaign in PA