From Jim Geraghty’s Campaign Spot:
A Campaign Spot reader has been watching the early vote in Hamilton County, Ohio, the county that includes Cincinnati. It’s a bit less heavily-Democrat; Obama won there, 52 percent to 47 percent, in 2008. But it is the third most populous county in Ohio.
This reader notes that overall, early votes are 7 percent behind the same point in 2008. What’s more, they have cross-checked the early voters with those who voted in the state’s Republican primary – and determined that non-Republican primary voters are now down 14 percent from the level of four years ago.
Remember, Obama beat McCain by seven points nationally — but by only 3% with Election Day day voters. Republicans are less likely to vote early than Democrats are, meaning if Dems don’t turn out the early vote in big numbers, they might just get clobbered.