Reading the Tea Leaves

Say it with me again: Amateurs study strategy, professionals study logistics. With that in mind, I direct your attention to Erick Erickson at Red State, who has what might be the most important report you’ll read between now and Election Day:

One would think the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (”DSCC”) would have a joint fundraising committee with Robin Carnahan, running against Roy Blunt in Missouri. And one would think they would use Barack Obama as the front man for the joint fundraiser.

If one thinks that, one would be wrong.

Today in Missouri, Barack Obama spoke at the fundraiser organized by the joint fundraising committee of the DSCC and sitting United States Senator Claire McCaskill — a woman not up for re-election.

At this event, Robin Carnahan, the 2010 Democratic Senate candidate in Missouri, was no where to be seen.

[SNIP]

Carnahan should be able to do like Rick Perry and run a race against Washington and against the Republicans. Except she can’t. Her party owns Washington. And because her party owns Washington and Barack Obama owns the party, Robin Carnahan is screwed.

Barack Obama knows it. He’s trying to stay away lest political reporters finally start paying attention like the rest of us and realize Barack Obama is exactly what I said he was — Barack Obama is now a social pariah and most Democrats and he know it.

Unprecedented. And that makes it a huge indicator for what might happen next fall.

A couple weeks ago something occurred to me, but I didn’t mention it — because A) I hadn’t looked at enough races, and B) I didn’t want to look like an idiot. OK, I didn’t want to look more idiotic than absolutely necessary. I still haven’t done A), but I’m now willing to go out on a limb and do B).

So here it is: The Republicans won’t just capture the House this fall, but their majority could be as big as the one the Democrats now enjoy.

I’m still not willing to call the Senate for the GOP. Their very-best-case scenario is a 50-50 split, with Joe Biden casting the tie-breaking votes. But if that does happen, you might expect to see enough Democrats voting with the Republicans on the big issues, that Biden won’t be of much use.

But he’s used to that.