Explosive Growth

If you need to buy flash memory from industry leader Samsung, and your name isn’t Steve Jobs, then you’re in trouble. Apple must be planning on selling lots of new 3G iPhones. Like, 10 million or more just in the second half of this year.

It seems that Apple is doing (or trying to do) to the smartphone market what Microsoft did to the PC market in the ’90s.

Back when Apple sucked — pretty much most of the ’90s — Microsoft exploded. It’s not that Macintosh was losing sales, it’s that while Apple was stuck with their existing customers, Microsoft was creating entire new markets of PC buyers.

Similarly, Apple isn’t trying to steal customers away from RIM’s Blackberry. Those people want their email every four seconds, and RIM delivers. Say what you like about Blackberries, but the do that one thing better than anybody. Instead, it seems that Apple is creating entirely new markets of smartphone buyers. People like me who don’t need a dedicated email phone like RIM makes, but something a little more all-purpose.

In other words, iPhone sales won’t grow by stealing customers away from RIM. Apple is making all-new customers RIM never dreamed of pursuing.

I’m not in the market for a 3G iPhone — my current model works just fine, thanks. But when it finally breaks, you can bet I’ll pop right on up to the Apple Store to buy the latest and greatest 4G (or whatever) model. And Crackberry addicts will most likely stick by RIM. But people who never dreamed of owning a smartphone before will prove much more likely to buy an iPhone than a Blackberry. Just like Microsoft once made PCs ubiquitous, Apple is poised to do the same for smartphones.