Wargaming the Electoral College

Electoral-Vote.com picks Kerry, 283-246. They have WI, FL, IA and NM all going for Kerry, with NV and NH too close to call.

ElectionProjection goes for Bush, 286-252.

Dave Leip (US Election Atlas) gives Kerry the Mother of All Squeakers: 272-266. (Slate concurs.)

Greg Abbott says he’d “rather be in John Kerry’s position than George Bush’s.” And no wonder. The way he figures undecided will break on Tuesday, they give Kerry a substantial 297-241 win.

Tripias goes almost exactly the other way. Bush, 295/Kerry, 243.

Meanwhile, TradeSports hasn’t changed since Sunday morning.

You’ll notice a new map of the US at the top of the righthand column of this page. Currently, all states are gray. As election results come in Tuesday, I’ll be filling them in with the appropriate colors, along with running totals of the Electoral College vote.

For this one, I’ll have to stay sober – it looks to be a long night.

Here’s my last guess before the big day:

UPDATE: I keep finding more data, polls, reports from local voters, early voting exit polls, etc – so this won’t be my final map, after all. Look for another one late Monday night.

UPDATE: Betting is closed on TradeSports.