Kerry needs 76 more votes; Bush needs 30.
The toss-up states are Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Of those nine states, six went to Gore in 2000, giving him 74 EC votes. Today, those states are worth only 70. Either way, Kerry losses if he doesn’t crack into at least one of the old Red States: Colorado, Nevada, or Ohio. Last time around they were worth 33.
Kerry is currently running slightly behind in Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin (worth 24 altogether). Give those to Bush, and he’s only six away from victory.
Bush is running behind in Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania (worth 43). Give those to Kerry, and he still needs to find 33 more votes.
Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio are all just too close to call (not that that stopped me from doing so last night).