Wargaming the Electoral College

Not much has changed since last week, although I’ve given Kerry New Hampshire (a gamble) and Oregon (which, as I said then, was never really Bush’s).

Slightly more interesting is Rasmussen’s tracking poll – the poll I most trust. It’s a “rolling” poll, with surveys conducted over three nights, updated daily. Thus, the first day where Kerry’s debate win would have really shown up was Sunday, October 3. Today’s numbers should be even firmer.

Instead, we don’t have any more movement by either candidate than we’ve seen all week – and less than Rasmussen has shown in the last three weeks.

But – and this is a big but – I think the results have yet to fully show the Spin Factor. Since Friday morning’s newspapers, each side has been spinning the results to make their guy look better than he did in the actual debate. The Kerry Camp had better material to work with, so their spin will probably work better. The Bush Camp, less so. Again, the polls take three days to completely reflect any changes, so keep a close eye on Rasmussen the next two-three days.

If Kerry doesn’t get a bigger bounce by Thursday, however, then Friday’s debate becomes even more important for him. He earned himself an opening last week with the undecideds, but – so far – it doesn’t look like he’s closed the deal.

UPDATE: More here, here, and here.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Well. I’m starting to wonder if Electoral-Vote.com really is a Democrat-leaning site. If you click through to their Final Results Projection (as opposed to their weekly here’s-how-things-stand-right-now map), they’re predicting a Bush blow-out. 346-189. That’s an awfully long limb to climb out on, but their methodology looks sound.