The next war in Iraq will be a civil war — and it’s coming soon. Or so says Jim Dunnigan:
Throwing Saddam Hussein and his Baath party out of power leads to a danger many of Iraq’s neighbors have long warned about; a civil war. Iraq has always been an unstable country. But not much more unstable than some of its neighbors. Syria, Israel, Yemen and Lebanon suffer from similar ethnic, religious and political divisions. Lebanon suffered a fifteen year civil war from 1975-90, Yemen is still unstable, Israel has an ongoing civil war with the Palestinians and Syria faces chaos when the current dictatorship, run by the Alawite minority, falls.
Iraq’s cast of potentially warring factions is a long one, and they are all waiting to present their grievances and demands to the occupation government and, following that, the next Iraqi government. No one has a solution for this coming conflict, but it’s useful to know who is going to be fighting who, and why.
What can save Iraq from a civil war and the next Saddam? “Democracy,” says Jim.