The PJ Tatler

Trump Leads in N.H. While Kasich, Fiorina Make Gains; Sanders Trumping Clinton

A new poll out of New Hampshire shows a commanding lead for Donald Trump and two candidates making big surges.

The Public Policy Polling survey shows Trump at 35 percent in the first-in-the-nation primary state, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich is second with 11 percent and Carly Fiorina has 10 percent.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) have seen big slips since their post-announcement peaks: from 14 percent to 4 percent for Cruz, and 12 percent to 4 percent for Paul. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has dropped from 7 percent to less than 1 percent.

Holding the middle at 7 percent in the new polls are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and Ben Carson has 6 percent.

Some more notes from PPP:

“-Bush is really struggling. Only 38% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of him to 41% with a negative one. This is largely a function of his unpopularity with conservatives- among voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative’ just 34% have a positive opinion of him to 48% who have a negative one. Only 3% say he’s their first choice for the nomination, putting him in a tie for 8th place with that group.

-Kasich is on the move because of his strength with moderate voters. He gets 20% with them, putting him second to Trump, and making up for his own trouble on the right- he gets just 1% with ‘very conservative’ voters. Moderates are 29% of the GOP electorate on this poll, a lot more than in most places.

-New Hampshire makes another state where Ben Carson is the most well liked Republican, with 62% rating him favorably to 17% who have a negative opinion. Carly Fiorina is not far behind him at 58/19. Besides those two and Trump, the only other Republican seen positively by a majority of primary voters is Marco Rubio at 50/27.

-Besides Bush, Huckabee, and Paul other Republican hopefuls with negative favorabilities even among the GOP electorate in New Hampshire are Lindsey Graham at 20/43 (-23), Chris Christie at 35/46 (-11), Jim Gilmore at 4/13 (-9) George Pataki at 27/32 (-5), and Rick Perry at 34/37 (-3).”

On the Dem side, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is holding off Hillary Clinton, 42 percent to 35 percent. And he’s leading in every category of Dems in New Hampshire: “somewhat liberal,” “very liberal” and moderate.

Sanders leads Clinton among men and women, but seniors like 67-year-old Clinton over 73-year-old Sanders. With voters under age 65, Bernie leads 45 percent to 29 percent for Hillary.

Fiorina told MSNBC this morning that debate rules which average national polls should instead use polling from the early states to determine who gets primetime.

“I think Donald Trump is perhaps, as much as anything, a big wakeup call to the professional-political class, as well as the media, honestly. People are tired of both. And they don’t trust either one anymore. I think what Donald Trump taps into is a disgust with professional-political class, a belief that the game is rigged and that in part whether this is fair or not, the media helped rig it. I think people want truth telling in politics,” Fiorina said.

“…Having said all that, I think what presidential campaigns do is reveal character over time and under pressure. And I think character will be revealed of all the candidates over time and under pressure.”