The Rothenberg Report has flared changes in two US House races today. Both changes show negative trends for the Democrats.
In West Virginia 3, Democrat Rep. Nick Rahall outspent the Republicans and won by 8 points in 2012. But in 2014, Obamacare is as unpopular as ever and outside groups are spending heavily to bring state Sen. Evan Jenkins to parity on money and advertising.
So, Rothenberg has changed its rating in that race from Leans Democrat to Pure Toss-Up. Defeating Rahall would result in a GOP pick-up.
Ohio 6 is currently held by Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. Polls have his re-elect number at 53%, which is weak, so the Democrats raised their hopes that Jennifer Garrison might pick him off. But Rothenberg says that Garrison “must demonstrate a level of independence from President Barack Obama and the national Democratic Party in order to win a majority in the district while needing to raise money from traditional Democratic groups to communicate her message effectively.” That’s a tough line to toe. Rothenberg has changed its rating on Ohio 3 from Leans Republican to Republican Favored.