New AGW Paper Finds No Statistically Significant Human-caused Warming

Just picked this up from Watts Up With That.  Here’s the abstract:

We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.

 The takeaway is highlighted (my emphasis): None of the various anthropogenic mechanisms they examined, including carbon dioxide, statistically show any connection of overall global warming.  I haven’t read the paper yes, but this would be a very heavy blow against the AGW hypothesis.


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