Mitt Romney’s coalition in Ohio is very similar to how he won Michigan: he’s carrying Catholics, suburbanites, moderates and upper income voters according to the CNN poll. Rick Santorum is winning Tea Party acolytes, farmers and downscale voters.
Interesting: Romney is splitting conservatives with Rick. Given Mitt’s edge with moderates, this bodes well for tonight. Santorum’s best hope for an upset is a massive rural turnout that the exit poll hasn’t picked up. (This has happened before: the main the exit polls gave us President Gore in 2000 and President Kerry in 2004 is an under-estimation of rural votes.)