By about 6 points, which is outside the margin of error and the whatever the pollster’s institutional bias might be.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 37% would choose the Democrat instead. This is almost identical to findings for the previous three weeks.
The GOP has been consistently ahead on the Generic Ballot since June 2009, leading by as much as 12 points and as little as two. The week before Election Day last November, support for Republicans peaked at 51%, the highest level of support either party has enjoyed in the last two years, but GOP support tapered off after that. This marks the 12th week in a row that Republican support has fallen in the narrow range of 41% to 44%.
Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot – 42% to 35% – when Barack Obama took office as president in late January 2009, but their support has generally remained in the mid- to upper 30s since June of that year. Republicans began to close the gap following the stimulus debate in February 2009.