While no one can know how someone votes when they cast their ballot, some analysts are watching the party affiliation of voters who voted early and on Election Day in Florida, Virginia, and elsewhere. Early analysis has some hopeful signs that a red wave may materialize. Republicans would need to flip about 35 seats to have a post-wave majority. It is a lower threshold in a single election because of the gains Republicans made in 2020.
At noon, Dave Wasserman of Cook Political observed that in VA-02, Virginia Beach, GOP precincts showed an increase in turnout of 55-60% from 2021 when Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race. In other precincts, turnout was only up 40-45%. He also noted that total ballots in many Florida counties were skewing more Republican than in 2020, including Miami-Dade. Wasserman said that Republicans generally hold their most significant advantage for the first two or three hours of Election Day voting. Still, he assessed that the differentials were large for Democrats to overcome later in the day.
Patrick Ruffini from Echelon Insights had a similar assessment of Florida data early in the day. He concurred with Wasserman’s assessment. Just after noon, he said that incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis could win Miami-Dade without converting any voters based on turnout. However, he noted polls demonstrated an 8-10 point shift toward Republicans in the area:
🚨 Miami-Dade is going to be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats.
In 2018, Dems outvoted Republicans by at least 70k votes.
In the 22 point shift in 2020, Dems still outvoted Republicans by 90k.
Republicans have a 10k vote lead in ballots cast as of right now. pic.twitter.com/7S45VTqxt8
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) November 8, 2022
By 4:30, there was a 12-point difference in which party showed up at the polls in 66 of 67 Florida counties. Ruffini called this a Category 5 disaster for Democrats in the state. If numbers like this hold, they take the Sunshine State out of the purple column. All eyes will be on early returns, and Florida’s process is the envy of anyone who wants fast, accurate tabulation. Reports are the state will have its results by 11 p.m. this evening.
Related: The Top Five Excuses Democrats Will Use When They Get Annihilated on Election Day
And despite the problems in Maricopa County, Arizona, the ballot share as of noon was 4:1 Republican. In 2020, Ruffini said it was 3:1. And despite all the problems in 2020, Georgia has been rolling along problem free with an excellent turnout. Chief Operation Officer for the Secretary of State Gabriel Sterling posted earlier that the average wait time to vote was around two minutes. Contrary to concerns from the media and Stacey Abrams, no one is dying of thirst or hunger in those lines.
Director of Honest Elections Jason Snead was also in Georgia talking to voters in Cobb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties. “No matter who the person voted for, Kemp or Abrams., Georgians are genuinely pleased with the process.” Snead added he had no reports of suppression or other issues in the three precincts where the Department of Justice sent monitors. Hopefully, the new election law provides a process that rivals Florida’s for speed for returns.
As the polls start to close, we will see how these turnout trends hold, but Democrats’ big concern was voter turnout. It appeared to be lagging in Florida and one toss-up district in Virginia. Stay with PJ Media throughout the evening for live updates from Decision Desk HQ on all the races nationwide and Stephen Green’s infamous live blog.
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