Two babies were born on the same day at the same hospital. They lay there and looked at each other. Their families came and took them away.
Eighty years later, by a bizarre coincidence, they lay in the same hospital, on their deathbeds, next to each other. One of them looked at the other and said, "So. What did you think?"
Now that the Iran War is over, the American people are asking themselves something similar: “So. What did you think?”
Was the Iran War worth the cost?
It’s a critically important question. At stake is nothing less than the 2026 midterms.
The good news is, Donald Trump has FINALLY unified public opinion! The bad news is, it’s unified against his administration: The ideological isolationists were against the Iran War from the very beginning. They see little reason to change their minds: It was a mistake then, and it’s a mistake now.
The Groyper isolationists were against the Iran War because Israel was our ally. (Period, end of story.) They might be starting to smile because this peace agreement reportedly blindsided Israel, but it won’t be enough to win over the bigots: Israel, the bloodthirsty, genocidal nation that bankrolled Jeffrey Epstein’s sinister blackmail schemes, is guilty of tricking America into war! (That’s why you can’t trust Jews, you know.) To them, the optics were unforgivable — as was Trump’s betrayal.
The Democrats were against the Iran War because Trump = Satan. (At this point, hysterical Democratic opposition and over-the-top pearl-clutching are baked into the pie. Nobody should be surprised by it.)
The hawks did support the Iran War, but now they’re rebelling, too. In their eyes, the (reported) terms of the peace deal are eerily similar to President Barack Obama’s toothless, rudderless, feather-fisted Iran agreement — and a mockery of President Trump’s earlier promise of regime change and “unconditional surrender.” By all accounts, this agreement doesn’t prevent Iran from enriching uranium, it doesn’t limit its ballistic missile program, and it doesn’t block it from funding terrorist proxy armies, like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Instead, Iran is about to receive a glut of money — perhaps as much as $300 billion — which it’ll immediately use to rebuild its military and missile programs, fund terrorist armies, and continue its “peaceful” nuclear research.
If you’re an open-minded realist (and/or a swing voter), the facts on the ground are too muddled; the skyline too blurred. Even if you wanted to, you can’t support the Iran War because there’s no visible proof (yet) that the juice was worth the squeeze. President Trump says one thing, and the mullahs say something else. (And how many times was a super-duper peace deal just around the corner?) But if this was such a yuuuge American win, where’s my “victory dividend,” Mr. President? We began the Iran War with free, open access to the Strait of Hormuz — and Iran pinky-promising that it won’t develop nukes in secret — and now we’re pretty much back to the status quo. In return, Americans faced higher gas prices and higher inflation, and Trump’s poll numbers tanked. There’s a growing sense that Trump rolled the dice with the Iran War and came up snake eyes.
The MAGA enthusiasts and “let Trump cook” crowd are still with him, of course. Until the details of the peace deal are verified, they’ll continue to give the president the benefit of the doubt. (And even if the details are disastrous, a sizable portion will still stay with him anyway: They’re his ride-or-die through hell or high water. Go get ‘em next time, Mr. President!) This gives Trump an unusually high basement — and a commanding voice in GOP primaries — but it ain’t nearly enough to win the midterms, alas.
So, in hindsight, was the Iran War worth it?
Well, if you’re a PR-obsessed political writer (Hi!), the question itself is problematic because it means we ended the Iran War without an indisputable, undeniable victory. The question is a symptom of a bigger problem: Despite killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, obliterating its navy, air force, and air defense, and making mincemeat of its military, we still lost the PR war at home. (The poll numbers are what they are.) We still lost the PR war abroad. (Where the poll numbers are even worse.)
Ask yourself: If we didn’t win the PR war when the U.S. Armed Forces were uploading daily videos of death, destruction, and visible proof of American success, why would anyone think we’ll win the PR war over the peace?
At least in war, there’s a factual checklist: troop movement, casualty numbers, missile strikes, dead leaders, photographs, and video evidence. In a negotiated peace, there’s none of that: Everything’s subject to spin and interpretation.
Which plays to Iran’s strength.
Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 3, 2020
The unfortunate truth is, we won’t know if the Iran War was worth it any time soon. Certainly not before the midterms — and possibly never.
We can quantify the cost of the Iran War: 13 Americans died, billions were spent, and significant “political capital” was expended. And we can see what happens next. Perhaps Donald Trump is right — and this will be the deal that breaks the mullahs’ backs, brings peace to the Middle East, and ends nearly half a century of Iranian aggression.
Or perhaps it won’t. Perhaps Iran will continue to do what it always does — only this time with bragging rights, ‘cause it took Uncle Sam’s best shot and shrugged it off without flinching.
But we’ll never know how events would’ve unfolded if we stood still and did nothing: Alternative timelines don’t exist.
Since we can’t access the multiverse, we’re stuck with this one stupid universe.
Today, the Iraq War is viewed as a horrible mistake. It ruined George W. Bush’s reputation. But it’s also true that in the Iraq War, we fought and killed thousands of foreign fighters — non-Iraqi Muslims who were so committed to Islamic jihad (and so inspired by 9/11) that they actually left their homeland and traveled to Iraq to wage war on American troops.
It’s entirely possible that if we didn’t fight those jihadists in Iraq, a percentage of them would’ve traveled to the United States to wage war on us here. And since only 19 terrorists were needed to orchestrate 9/11, it’s entirely possible that the Iraq War saved us from an untold number of 9/11-inspired attacks. Maybe even a new terrorist attack every few months. Tens of thousands of American citizens could’ve perished.
Perhaps in an alternate timeline, NOT declaring war on Iraq led to an even WORSE outcome!
And perhaps the same is true about Iran: Perhaps the old status quo — featuring a savvy, firmly entrenched Supreme Leader, a secret nuclear program (hidden deep beneath a mountain, no less), and Iran controlling the Middle East’s biggest military in both manpower and biggest ballistic missiles — was a disaster waiting to happen. Perhaps the Iran War prevented a nuclear Armageddon in our not-so-distant future.
Maybe.
But since we can’t access alternative timelines, it doesn’t really matter. George W. Bush didn’t win kudos for averting future 9/11s; instead, we held him accountable for the awful mess in Iraq.
A similar fate awaits Donald Trump.
The president’s best bet is a two-pronged PR argument: Explain to the American people what we gained from winning the Iran War — and then demonstrate the “connective tissue” between our Iran War victory and Making America Great Again.
For example, because Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will now be the world’s #1 leader in safe, reliable oil exports — which means more wealth (and more jobs) for the American people. Because Iran can no longer develop nuclear technology, for the first time in decades, the world can breathe a sigh of relief. American kids will no longer face a nuclear holocaust. Because the villainous, untrustworthy Supreme Leader is now roadkill, the Iranian people have a new chance with a new leader — and anything beyond that is up to them. Because Iran is no longer destabilizing the region, we can reallocate our resources to domestic concerns — and the probability of future presidents sending young Americans to die in yet another Middle East war is practically nil. There’s finally a window for Israel to make peace with its neighbors, for stability to reign, and for the U.S. economy to take off like a SpaceX rocket! (Or at least like its valuation.)
Sell the benefits of victory — and then, just as importantly, sell the connective MAGA tissue.
Because “Was the Iran War worth it?” is the wrong question to ask. The answer, alas, is unknowable: That’s what happens when wars end without an unconditional surrender.
So focus instead on what we gained, how the American people benefited from it — and why this absolutely had to happen to Make America Great Again.
And then move on. Pivot to the economy, cost of living, and affordability.
Or, come Election Day, so will the voters.
One Last Thing: 2026 is a critical year for America First. It began with Mayor Mamdani declaring war on “rugged individualism” and will reach a crescendo with the midterm elections. Nothing less than the fate of the America First movement teeters in the balance.
Never before have the political battle lines been so clearly defined. Win or lose, 2026 will transform our country.
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