It feels like we've been talking about who the 2028 GOP nominee will be from the moment Donald Trump was inaugurated in 2025. Even Trump himself has thrown his opinions out in multiple interviews.
Ultimately, it seems to come down to either Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, possibly even a combination of the two.
Vance feels like the natural MAGA heir, and he performs best in polls by a mile. He's extremely intelligent, he's a veteran, and he has major relatable Middle America appeal. His story is the ultimate proof that you can pull yourself out of any bad situation, and he's been a great advocate for people of faith and family values.
But he's also young, and some say he needs more experience under his belt, plus some of his ties to certain right-wing influencers come across as unappealing to certain voters.
Rubio definitely has the experience, and his star has risen in his current position as secretary of State, National Security advisor, and pretty much head of everything. He's proven his competence on foreign policy 100 times over in just one year, he's made the case for American exceptionalism most eloquently, and he's the subject of what may be the most popular meme on the internet — I know that sounds silly, but it matters. He also appeals to Hispanic voters, which the GOP needs desperately, and could pull in some moderates and independents.
But he doesn't poll nearly as well — though he's gaining some momentum in 2026 after Venezuela and Iran — and many voters still focus on his past and file him under labels like "neocon," "establishment," and "RINO." Based on his 2016 presidential run, they don't think he'd be a good candidate.
According to NBC, Trump has been polling his pals and donors at Mar-a-Lago dinners in recent weeks, and they have pretty strong opinions about who they want to see as the nominee.
On the night before the conflict in Iran began, Trump was actually hosting a dinner at his home base in Florida "with a group of roughly 25 GOP donors, including New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and billionaire Georgia gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson."
Trump asked the crowd who he should support in 2028, and according to someone who was there, the crowd shouted "Rubio" and cheered almost unanimously. However, another person in attendance told NBC that the room was more evenly split. (And these are not named sources, so, as usual, take that with a grain of salt...)
NBC also reports that another former Trump official said that you have to remember that Mar-a-Lago crowd is not all that representative of the United States.
The Mar-a-Lago donor crew are not JD people. He did not get picked [to be vice president] because of the Mar-a-Lago crowd. If you remember, that crowd was lobbying the president to pick Marco.
White House spokesman Steven Cheung responded and said this isn't the administration's current priority: "The president has assembled an all-star team that has achieved unprecedented success in just over one year. No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this Administration’s mission of fighting for the American people."
A lot of people have made a big fuss over the fact that JD Vance was in Washington, D.C. when we struck Iran, while Trump was with Rubio in Florida, believing it was proof of some sort of favoritism. But a White House spokesperson said this the reality is that it was a matter of security — it's probably best not to have the president and vice president in the same place when you're militarily going after one of the country's biggest enemies.
Vance hasn't announced whether or not he plans to run, but I can't imagine he won't. Rubio has said that if Vance does run, he'll step aside and support him. Many have floated a Vance-Rubio ticket. My personal opinion on that is that Rubio is much more useful where he is — being the vice president almost feels like a step down. Then again, maybe he can make history again and be the vice president and secretary of State and National Security advisor and head of everything else.
We'll see what happens. A lot can change in the next few months.
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