For months —long before the MSM caught on — I've been writing about how the Donald Trump administration seemed ready to take down the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela. All of the signs were there if you paid attention, and I know that it's something personal for Secretary of State Marco Rubio and has been for years. He's finally in a position to do something about it. It's become personal for me, as well, and it's personal for millions of Venezuelans who have fled their homeland, seeking a better life, and maybe even more so for those who live oppressed under Maduro and his thugs and just want relief.
But that's not reason enough for the U.S. to get involved. I get it. I do. Most of us lived through Iraq and Afghanistan, and many of us are sick of our tax dollars going to other countries for this and that. What I've heard from many of you in the comments sections and in my email and beyond is that you're not interested in a forever war. You're not interested in nation-building or regime change in a foreign land. And despite what Maduro and some of his friends down south say, it's not imperialism or occupation either. It's a partnership.
Should we become militarily involved in Venezuela, it won't look anything like what we've seen in recent decades. What it would look like is helping a nation who will most likely become one of our most important allies in the fight against keeping extra-hemispheric actors — hello, China, Russia, and Iran — out of our own backyard, as well as keeping our own nation safe from the cartels and other terror networks that live within the Americas.
Last week, I wrote an essay on 10 reasons why the United States can't afford to ignore Venezuela anymore. Now, I want to take that a step further and explain why Venezuela would be different.
1. Venezuela Has Real Leadership Waiting With a Plan
I think one of the biggest issues for the "no nation building" crowd is that they don't quite understand or have all the information regarding Venezuela's 2024 elections. Despite being extremely unpopular, Maduro ran for a third term last year. His opponent should have been María Corina Machado — the woman whom much of the world learned about for the first time last Friday when she won the Nobel Peace Prize.
Machado — who is pro-democracy, pro-free market, and anti-socialism in ways I wish many leaders in our own country were — is an extremely accomplished woman and I hope to write more about her soon, but she's one of the few people in her country who was not afraid to look Hugo Chávez in the eye and criticize him. She's been harassed, she's been arrested, she's suffered injuries, and she put her life on the line to fight Chavismo. She's also wildly popular with Venezuelans. In 2023, she won the opposition's primary with over 90% of the vote. Beating Maduro in 2024 should have been smooth sailing.
But Maduro knew this and as dictators do, he had his Supreme Tribunal of Justice ban her from running for office for 15 years. Long story short, Machado chose an ally, former diplomat Edmundo González, to replace her. When election time rolled around in July 2024, over 12 million Venezuelans showed up to vote. Most of them felt they finally had a chance to get out from under Maduro, even though he did everything in his power to make it difficult for people to vote for the opposition, whether it was ensuring that he received positive media coverage while his opponent received little to none, making it difficult for people to register to vote by creating arbitrary rules, or restricting access to polling places.
González "received the most votes in this election by an insurmountable margin," a fact that was verified by third-party international observers. The opposition indicated that he earned something like 67% of the vote, compared to Maduro's 30%, and based on the way Maduro intimidates and threatens voters, my guess is that the number probably would have been much higher. However, the next day, the National Electoral Council of Venezuela came out and declared Maduro the winner, saying he'd gotten over 51% of the vote compared to González's 44.2%.
Numerous international human rights organizations, as well as the United States, most European countries, and most other Latin American countries, condemned Maduro's actions — Russia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Turkey congratulated him — and experts claimed that it was statistically impossible for him to win. Protests erupted throughout the country. Venezuelans tore down statues of Chávez and Chavismo billboards. But Maduro didn't back down; he ramped up. Thousands were arrested. Some died. The regime brought back an old intimidation tactic from 2017 called "Operation Tun Tun" (Operation Knock Knock), which meant authorities went door-to-door looking for anyone who supported the protests or the opposition. Political opponents who didn't "disappear" fled the country or went into hiding.
Today, González lives in Spain in exile, while Machado is still in Venezuela in hiding. Should Maduro fall, these two have a plan in place to take power and restore their country's dignity within the first 100 days. It won't be easy, and yes, it may require a little assistance from us and other countries in the hemisphere, but the result, if successful, will be a beautiful partnership with these two very pro-United States leaders.
"We have everything ready," Machado said in a recent interview. "And we have identified where the groups that will seek to destabilize are located. We know where they are, who makes them up, where they are located, and we know how we are going to approach and neutralize them."
As Daniel Chang Contreras wrote for RealClearWorld, "In short, if there is a transition, it will be Venezuelan-led, not American-imposed."
2. Venezuelans Want This
A lot of Democrats, I've noticed, like to throw out the phrase "regime change" when talking about all of this. But as Rubio always points out, this isn't regime change. Regime change, if you want to call it that, took place in July 2024. There is no doubt in anyone's mind, even Maduro's, that Venezuelans got out and risked their lives to vote for González (and Machado), and they won the election fair and square. Maduro is not el presidente. He is a narco-terrorist, cartel boss, and communist dictator thug holding a nation hostage, and he's allowed every criminal in the world in to help him do it.
"Venezuela is already experiencing an invasion, absolutely. By Cuban, Iranian, Chinese, and Russian agents, Islamic terrorists, and drug cartels that have taken control of a good part of our territory, leaving trails of blood, destruction, pain, and hunger. That's why there's this reaction, because this is about a liberation," Machado said in a recent interview with the BBC when asked if she would support an "invasion" by the United States.
She also claims that 90% of Venezuelans want him gone. While I can't verify that number myself, I have seen polls in recent months claiming that anywhere from 70% to 80% of Venezuelans do want Maduro out, and several think tanks say the only way for it to happen is with U.S. intervention. Machado say she says 90% because even in surveys, people are afraid to speak out. Maduro keeps close tabs on dissenters and punishes them arbitrarily.
3. Venezuela was Once a Free Democracy With a Booming Economy
Taking Maduro down doesn't mean building a nation from scratch. Between the 1950s and 1980s, Venezuela was actually a thriving democracy — one of the wealthiest nations in Latin America with a strong middle class. It's sitting on the largest oil reserves in the world after all. It had some of the best educational options and highest literacy rates in the Western Hemisphere. My point is that it has strong bones, even if a few decades of socialism and mismanagement of the state-owned petroleum company, PDVSA, have bruised and battered it. Today, the people who live there can't get basic food and medical supplies.
Under the right leadership, it can return to that, not through nation-building, but nation-reclaiming.
For the sake of my poor editors whose eyes glazed over when they saw my previous 4,000-word essay, I'm not going to dive into a detailed history lesson, but if you are interested in learning more about that, I'm reading a great book on it right now called Venezuela's Collapse: The Long Story of How Things Fell Apart by Carlos Lizarralde. I haven't finished it, but so far, it's given me a better understanding of Venezuela's history over the last half a century or so.
4. This Won't Be a Major 'Boots on the Ground' Operation
While I've written extensively about the eventual fall of Maduro, the one area where I lack knowledge is the logistical aspect of the intervention. I have no idea what the administration has planned — Rubio doesn't give me his hot scoops (yet). I have some ideas based on my research and what's already happened, but I'm going to keep that speculation to myself because this is not my area of expertise. That said, this won't be a "war" or full-scale invasion of Venezuela.
The U.S. has been working on this long before most people even knew about it — sanctions, diplomacy (aka telling Maduro to step down), blowing up narco-boats, a growing military presence in the Southern Caribbean, putting a $50 million reward out for dear leader who is also a wanted U.S. fugitive. On Wednesday, the New York Times broke the news that the president has authorized "covert CIA action" in Venezuela, allowing the CIA to operate against Maduro unilaterally or with the help of the military.
Trump himself said during a press conference in the Oval Office that "we are certainly looking at land now, because we’ve got the sea very well under control."
Every media outlet reported on this breathlessly yesterday, like we were headed off to war, but I felt it was just intimidation again, at least for now. Every time Trump makes a move, Maduro crumbles a bit more. When the $50 million reward went out and military action ramped up in the Caribbean, Maduro reportedly started moving assets. When we began blowing up his narco-boats, he cried about imperialism and the blood on the hands of Rubio. He tried to distract people by telling them to celebrate Christmas in October. When the administration ended diplomatic talks, he reached out to his buddies in Cuba and Russia and begged the UN to get involved. When the CIA news came out yesterday, he appealed to the American public to stop Trump. We've also learned that he's offered up all the oil and gold and minerals in Venezuela to convince Trump to allow him to stay in power.
If it does come down to military intervention on Venezuelan land, it will be limited, targeted, and supportive. This won't be an open-ended war. Trump doesn't do that.
5. Venezuela's Military Is Weak
Despite Maduro's talk of how strong his military is and how millions of civilian militia are trained and prepared to fight the U.S. tooth and nail, it's all a smokescreen.
He's claimed that up to 8 million Venezuelans are part of his militia — that's about a third of the population — but the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates the number is closer to 220,000, and others say even that's an incredibly generous number. It's impossible to know exactly.
As for the military itself, IISS estimates 123,000 soldiers and 8,000 reservists, but even those numbers are likely optimistic. Many have deserted or defected. Others are so caught up in narco-trafficking that they're more concerned about making money than fighting a war. Recruitment numbers are low. Videos of the military preparing for battle have popped up all over social media in recent weeks, and they're laughable.
As is Maduro's military equipment. Here's more from France 24:
The economically troubled South American country has a ragtag collection of Russian fighter jets, Iranian drones, old French tanks and a German submarine... Venezuela possesses 15 F16 fighter jets purchased from the United States in the 1980s, 173 French AMX-13 tanks, 78 British tanks, and a Sabalo submarine acquired from Germany in 1973.
It has one operational Italian frigate; nine coastal patrol vessels, 25 armed speedboats, and three landing vessels for 12 tanks and 200 personnel. In the 2000s, the country used the windfall from an oil boom to spend billions on its military under Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chavez. From Russia, it acquired 23 fighter jets, eight helicopters, 12 anti-aircraft missiles and 44 surface-to-air missile systems between 2006 and 2011 for a $11 billion price tag, according to Evan Ellis of the US Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute.More recently, under Western sanctions since 2017, Caracas also bought eight Iranian Mohajer drones.
An anonymous retired Venezuelan general also told France 24:
The problem is that if they are not coordinated, those military systems are useless. The Armed Forces do not train collectively to use all these land, air, and sea elements. Coordinating that without prior exercises, complicates the command of a complex operation. Morale is far below what is expected for a conflict.
6. Venezuela Isn't a Muslim Country
I'm not going to get too deep into this one because I feel like a lot of it's obvious to most of you, and I don't want to be disrespectful. Venezuela is a Christian/Catholic country (more than 90%) with cohesive values and culture. U.S. intervention isn't the West vs. Islam. This isn't about religious extremism. There are no ethnic or sectarian rivalries. Everyone speaks the same language (95% native Spanish). The new leadership is 100% pro-Western values. There's an overwhelming sense of community in Latin American culture, and Venezuela exemplifies that more than many other nations in the region.
7. Less Cash and Time Involved
For the sake of my editors, I'm not going to regurgitate facts about U.S. involvement in the Middle East. We all know we spent decades and trillions of dollars there, and that's what many of you fear would happen again. But this isn't some isolated country across the globe. The distance from Miami to Caracas is much closer than even distance between Miami and Los Angeles. There's no blank check. We're looking at maybe months — not years — of aid and potentially targeted military operations that ultimately make sense for our economy and our national security, which I explained in detail last week, so I won't rehash that either.
8. Hemispheric Allies Will Step Up
Another reason why this won't cost as much or last as long is we're not doing it alone. With a few exceptions, much of the Western Hemisphere wants Maduro out of here. Several members of the Organization of American States (OAS) have spoken out against him or condemned Cartel de los Soles. Like the U.S., they recognize González as the true president. On top of that, the Venezuelans fleeing the country are using up these other nations' resources. They're dealing with mass migration just like we are in the U.S. The cartel activity and drug trafficking is also increasing crime in these countries. We're all in the same boat in that regard. Plus, a prosperous Venezuela benefits them economically, too.
For example, Costa Rica's President Rodrigo Chaves appeared on Fox Noticias just a couple of days ago and had this to say:
Nicolás Maduro's Cartel of the Suns is operating throughout Latin America and is one of the forces we're fighting. Costa Rica, as you very correctly reported, is conducting marine patrols in conjunction with U.S. authorities... This is a fight in which Costa Rica stands shoulder to shoulder with the United States of America, and we will not allow those forces of international drug trafficking to continue affecting our societies and the society of the United States.
As I wrote earlier this week, there's a wave of change happening in Latin America. Many countries are rejecting socialism and aligning with Western and U.S. values and interests. Again, it's not imperialism; it's a partnership. A strong, allied Western Hemisphere is the only path toward prosperity for all of us. It's the only way to keep China at bay. It's the only way to keep our countries secure.
You don't have to take my word for it. Rubio, during Trump's meeting with Argentinian President Javier Milei this week, echoed almost verbatim what I wrote on Sunday: "Well, first of all, we have now eight or nine, 10 countries, Argentina being foremost among them, that have aligned with the United States on issue after issue... these great allies like Argentina — but I can go into others, Costa Rica, I don't want to leave anybody out, El Salvador. But I think one of the more promising developments is later this month, there'll be an election in Bolivia. After 25, 30 years of anti-American hostile government, both of the candidates running in that election, in the runoff election, want strong and better relations with the United States. Another transformative opportunity there. I think this is important. This is our hemisphere. It's where we live."
9. Maduro Doesn't Have a Lot of Friends Stepping Up To Help
Maduro has some friends, but they're not exactly the ones you'd want to have on speed dial. They're the Chinese, who steal your oil and put you billions of dollars in debt. They're the Russians, who are too busy with Ukraine to bother. They're the UN, which calls an emergency meeting on your behalf but the results are basically "meh." They're the Cuban dictatorship, whose own infrastructure is crumbling so badly that people go days without water and electricity. Iran and Turkey may toss Maduro a bone here and there, but I don't think either is up for a match against the U.S. and its hemispheric allies. Again, I don't see a lot of resistance here, internally or externally.
10. Donald Trump is President
I'm not being flippant. I just think that many people who scream about "Iraq" and "nation-building" have some sort of George Bush/Barack Obama-era PTSD.
Trump's foreign policy isn't to start wars. He ends them. He wants to be the "peace president." He's not an occupation kind of guy. He's a man who puts America first, and I have no doubt that if he and Rubio didn't see ousting Maduro as an America First situation, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
His goals are peace and prosperity through strength. Thus far, his entanglements involve non-military pressure and, as a last resort, getting in, getting the job done precisely, and getting out. Do you think that's going to suddenly change?
If I'm wrong on this nation-building business, I'll write a full-length apology right here on PJ Media for the world to see when the time comes. But once you dive into the facts, you look at the situation as it is, not as the MSM — many of whom just discovered Venezuela last week — paints it, you do the research, and you study all the things the smartest people in the room (like Machado and Rubio) have said over the years, you realize that this is a step in the right direction for the United States, for Venezuela, and for the Western Hemisphere. We must protect our own backyard.
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