Ron Rosenbaum

My Fearless Unprofessional Two-Month-Early Primary Predictions

Okay I’ve spent too much time with the background noise of cable political analysts, wasted too much time watching pathetic excuses for “debates”. Too much time thinking about the nature of the campaigns and the candidates.

So I’m just going to risk, what, being wrong? I never pretended to be a professional political prognosicator so who cares if I’m wrong. If I’m right I’ll make sure to remiond everyone in the world.

Here’s the picks: Obama wins Iowa, Hillary second, Edwards third. Hillary narrowly beats Obama in New Hampshire, Edwards third. Edwards withdraws and endorses Obama before the South Carolina primary which Obama wins. I just don’t have a strong opinion about Nevada and I don’t think the race will be over after the early-state primaries, because Hillary’s got the big bucks to fight on through Super Tuesday. But I think in the end Obama wins the nomination. I’ll let you know who the next Prez will be once we know the GOP nominee.

Update. Here’s an idea: Predictions challenge! I challenge other, more well credentialed political bloggers to make their picks for the early Demo primaries as of now. (you’re free to change your minds, but let’s see what you’ve got to say now, just for the hell of it). Post them and link to mine. (Commenters welcome too.). Yes it’s (horrrors!) just horse race analysis, nothing profound so what’s the risk? What’s the harm of testing your instincts?