Donald Trump is looking very closely at several military alternatives that would involve capturing, blockading, or neutralizing the strategic heart of the Iranian state, Kharg Island.
More than 90% of Iran's oil exports flow through the Kharg Island facilities, and blockading, destroying, or capturing those facilities would deprive the Iranian government of its primary source of income.
A Marine amphibious force of 2,500 is on its way to the Gulf, with two more similarly sized Marine combat groups preparing to deploy. No operation is likely for several weeks until the U.S. degrades Iran's military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz. "The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a U.S. official said," according to Axios.
"He wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that's going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that's going to happen. But that decision hasn't been made," a senior administration official told Axios.
If we seize Kharg Island, the world will lose about 1.5 million to 2.1 million barrels of oil a day, exacerbating an already dicey supply situation.
"If we seize Kharg Island, they're going to turn off the spigot on the other end. It's not like we control their oil production," Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery told Axios.
The strike was a "shot across the bow" to convince the Iranians to reopen the strait, U.S. officials said. But it was also a preparatory step to degrade Iran's military capabilities on the island and lay the groundwork for a potential ground operation.
"We can take out the island anytime we want. I call it the little island that sits there so totally unprotected. We've taken out everything but the pipes. We left the pipes because to rebuild the pipes would take years for them," Trump said on Thursday.
Trump also told reporters on Thursday that he was "not putting troops anywhere," though he added: "If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you."
Behind the scenes: Three sources said an occupation of the island by ground troops is under serious consideration.
"Hitting or seizing the island holds enormous risk for a president whose political standing at home could erode if military action against Kharg Island ignites a full-scale war by Iran against energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf," says Politico. Right now, both Iran and the U.S. are fighting with one hand tied behind their backs as far as attacking oil facilities.
Trump was upset about the attack by Israel on the gas fields of South Pars, the largest in the world, shared with Qatar. The attack caused an uncomfortable rise in oil prices. Iran responded by hitting the Qatar side of the gas field with one ballistic missile. It led to Trump asking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop targeting Pars.
The United States cannot afford an all-out war on oil infrastructure in the Gulf. While we import only about 8% of our oil from the Middle East, the same couldn't be said for our trading partners in Asia and Europe. An oil war of that sort would likely lead to a worldwide recession that would hit the U.S. hard.
So a Kharg Island takeover or blockade is very risky. It might not even work because for Iran, it's become a war for the survival of the elites.
"On a strategic level, blocking oil sales is feeble leverage after Trump and Netanyahu already thrust Iran’s leaders into an existential war for survival," writes former U.S. Army major Harrison Mann in Responsible Statecraft. "The U.S. and Israel have assassinated dozens of top politicians and commanders, and Iranian leaders understand Netanyahu is less interested in regime change than creating a collapsed state."
Whatever Trump does, he must do it soon, says former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
“If we do that, if we can succeed in that, then frankly, the president can prosecute the war as long as he needs to because the price of oil will collapse,” he said. “People will be happy again with the inflation rate. The rest of the world will relax.”
That outlook may be too rosy. But getting oil flowing through the strait again as soon as possible would be the optimal result of any action taken regarding Kharg Island.
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