Talks between the U.S. and Iran to curb its nuclear and missile programs have ended with Iran obstinately refusing to agree to restrictions on both weapons systems.
This was to be expected. Iran sees both programs as critical to national sovereignty. Their nuclear program is evidence of their "great power" status. Their missile program challenges Israel, although recent history would suggest Israel can knock most Iranian missiles out of the sky before they do any damage.
Both programs are seen as non-negotiable pillars of security and sovereignty for the Iranian state. In short, Iran simply couldn't give either of those programs up.
This almost certainly means that Donald Trump will launch a devastating strike as soon as he has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East, warning that a potential attack would be "far worse" than previous strikes.
Representatives from Israel and Saudi Arabia have been in Washington all week, talking to their American counterparts. Israel has brought potential targeting information for the U.S., including targeting individuals and institutions responsible for the horrific crackdown on protesters.
Meanwhile, the Saudis are looking to head off any strike at all. They fear a regional war if Iran decides to unleash a massive attack on Israel, U.S. bases, and other U.S. friends in the region. Iran possesses about 3,000 missiles capable of hitting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.
One source with knowledge said that Binder came to town to brief the Trump administration on specific intelligence it had requested about Iran.
Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman is expected to hold meetings focusing on Iran at the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House — including with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff.
Prince Khalid, the crown prince's younger brother and closest confidant, will be in Washington on Thursday and Friday.
The intrigue: The Saudis have been passing messages in recent days between the U.S. and Iran in an effort to de-escalate the situation.
Trump's ultimate goal is now regime change, according to White House sources, as CNN reported. However, a military strike now is still under discussion.
As ISW reports, things in Iran are likely to get even worse very soon. The continued shutdown of the internet is wreaking havoc on the economy as commerce has come to a virtual standstill. It's possible (not likely) that elements of the Revolutionary Guards — by far the best armed, best trained military force in the country — could attempt a coup which would topple Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Guards are very loyal, but they're not immune to a devastated economy. They are not only the most powerful military force, but they're also the most powerful economic force in Iran as well. They own hundreds of companies, large and small. Any threat to that cash flow will get many Guard members thinking about changing employers by force.
If it's regime change that Trump is going for, he will likely strike the leadership and the villains who carried out the mass slaughter on January 8-9. If we can assume that U.S. and Israeli intelligence have been busy sowing the seeds of rebellion, some kind of civil war is possible that would send the leadership to Abu Dhabi or some place equally friendly.
Otherwise, Trump will order the U.S. military to take out the remainder of Iran's nuclear program and the remaining ballistic missiles that Israel missed during the 12-day war.
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